x-post from mtt strategy: deep in sunday mil vs. marinersheep

[The Lipo Fund]

posted in other forum at first, didn't realize hsmtt was for more than sweats. anyways here's the hand. all advice appreciated







PokerStars Game #12770401059: Tournament #63861124, $200+$15 Hold'em No Limit - Level XXII (10000/20000) - 2007/10/21 - 22:25:37 (ET)
Table '63861124 125' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: TheLipoFund (341814 in chips)
Seat 2: grandpa1907 (142148 in chips)
Seat 3: concal (460587 in chips)
Seat 4: WRstatechamp (336260 in chips)
Seat 5: tyrantp (155017 in chips)
Seat 6: Eversti78 (367626 in chips)
Seat 7: Marinersheep (504484 in chips)
Seat 8: Sonyalf (883999 in chips)
Seat 9: kenjan1 (396723 in chips)
TheLipoFund: posts the ante 2000
grandpa1907: posts the ante 2000
concal: posts the ante 2000
WRstatechamp: posts the ante 2000
tyrantp: posts the ante 2000
Eversti78: posts the ante 2000
Marinersheep: posts the ante 2000
Sonyalf: posts the ante 2000
kenjan1: posts the ante 2000
Sonyalf: posts small blind 10000
kenjan1: posts big blind 20000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to TheLipoFund [Ah Ks]
TheLipoFund: raises 40000 to 60000
grandpa1907: folds
concal: folds
WRstatechamp: folds
tyrantp: folds
Eversti78: folds
Marinersheep: calls 60000
Sonyalf: folds
kenjan1: folds




I am an unknown so I'm sure my UTG raise represents strength, marinersheep is the one player at the table who I don't want to be calling me, especially from the button. I am already regretting not shoving it preflop when he calls, since the blinds are significant and each pay jump is exponentially increasing the size of my bankroll seeing as i'm a low limit grinder who won a satellite and played the mil.



*** FLOP *** [Qc 9c Js]


as if things werent bad enough I miss the flop completely. There isnt a single hand im beating that he would flat me with. i decide to continue through with the hand though, since I did raise utg and maybe being a complete unknown will get me some respect. I decide to under-bet the pot in order to feign strength while at the same time allow myself to get away from a shove. I do this all very quickly, not using the time bank making it look like all of my other bets where I had a hand.

TheLipoFund: bets 60000
Marinersheep: raises 382484 to 442484 and is all-in

Just as I feared, he fired back at me. I timebank on the decision knowing I will throw it away. The only thing I see myself beating is AT, and I doubt he would flat preflop there with such a marginal hand.



TheLipoFund: folds


I fold after losing about half of my stack and bust a few hands later 77vAK.


So in my spot, I have a few questions, since you all have a lot more experience than me, and know marinersheep's playing style more than I do. Given my preflop raise which was larger than the standard 2.5x (raised 3 hoping for shove), and an experienced donkamenter flatting the button, what can we put him on here? Is it always QQ or a hand of similar strength? Can I check fold that flop given my pf raise from utg?



thanks in advance

[Bakes]

c/f flop, every hand he flats ur utg raise with hit this board

[ASPoker8]

Your flop plan is terrible

Why are planning on bet/folding when hes never folding to your small bet and always has you beat?

[The Lipo Fund]

because a check fold just seemed too nitty to me at the time. playing 7% of hands for 6 hours i should've just stayed nitty.

bakes i hope you win a million dollars today, and everyday after that because you staking me for that 100k has really put me on the map.

[stevepa]

[ QUOTE ]
I am an unknown so I'm sure my UTG raise represents strength, marinersheep is the one player at the table who I don't want to be calling me, especially from the button. I am already regretting not shoving it preflop when he calls

[/ QUOTE ]

Honestly when he flat calls you there I'd be wishing I'd been in the bathroom and timed out preflop. Definitely check/fold this flop.

[The Lipo Fund]

steering away from the results of the hand

how much value would I be losing by just shoving AK pf?

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]

how much value would I be losing by just shoving AK pf?

[/ QUOTE ]

greatly depends on your image and on what much worse hands, if any, call

[The Lipo Fund]

what % of the time do you 2.5x?
what percentage of the time do you shove?
what % of the time, if any, do you limp reraise all-in?


sorry if i'm asking too many questions, but it's not very often I get sound advice from 3 of the people I respect most in this community.

[furfur]

what if ur image is standard TAG? I feel like with blinds and antes as high as they are here, hero would be more than happy to take them down uncontested.