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#11
07-21-2007, 11:16 PM
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Re: Orioles at Athletics 07-21
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I took Balt thinking it's a slight EV play here. I hate Trash but I think Haren's just barely above a mediocre pitcher. [/ QUOTE ] Really? Above mediocre pitcher? ERA+ 188 this season, 110 last year, 114 2005. Doesn't seem 'barely above a mediocre pitcher' to me. craig [/ QUOTE ] So basically you're showing that he was "slightly above average" the last two years and that he's currently overperforming by a large margin and boasting the league's lowest BABIP in the process. How is this not a good time to fade him? 
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#14
07-22-2007, 04:53 AM
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Re: Orioles at Athletics 07-21
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I took Balt thinking it's a slight EV play here. I hate Trash but I think Haren's just barely above a mediocre pitcher. [/ QUOTE ] Really? Above mediocre pitcher? ERA+ 188 this season, 110 last year, 114 2005. Doesn't seem 'barely above a mediocre pitcher' to me. craig [/ QUOTE ] So basically you're showing that he was "slightly above average" the last two years and that he's currently overperforming by a large margin and boasting the league's lowest BABIP in the process. How is this not a good time to fade him? [/ QUOTE ] I never said it was or wasn't a good time to fade him. My point was that he is better than 'barely above mediocre'. You are right though, he has been pretty lucky this year. craig
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#16
07-22-2007, 12:42 PM
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Re: Orioles at Athletics 07-21
[ QUOTE ]
Are line drive percentage and infield fly per flyball largely random or controlled by the pitcher? [/ QUOTE ] I've read studies that suggest a pitcher largely does not have control over his LD%. However, I'm sure about IFF/FB ratio. The Hardball Times tracks both of those stats so the data is there for analysis.
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#17
07-22-2007, 01:47 PM
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Re: Orioles at Athletics 07-21
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Are line drive percentage and infield fly per flyball largely random or controlled by the pitcher? [/ QUOTE ] I've read studies that suggest a pitcher largely does not have control over his LD%. However, I'm sure about IFF/FB ratio. The Hardball Times tracks both of those stats so the data is there for analysis. [/ QUOTE ] Thanks Tom. That seems to be one reason Haren has been so good this season his LD% is way down from his career average and much lower than league average. Line drives are hits much more than grounders or flyballs, correct? Hitters do control their LD% though, right? Thanks.
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#18
07-22-2007, 02:42 PM
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Re: Orioles at Athletics 07-21
Yes, that is my understanding. I learned most of this from David Gassko's article Batted Balls and DIPS. Read that if you haven't already done so.
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#19
07-22-2007, 08:26 PM
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Re: Orioles at Athletics 07-21
Have you ever noticed marginal pitchers having career years then regressing back to their previous state the rest of their career? I think with Haren this will be the case.
(of course I could be wrong--wouldn't be the first time nor the last I'm sure). Haren over the last month 31 IP 22K 4.65 ERA 1.55 WHIP starts -- balt, sea, at min, at nyy at cle Okay I'll give him a break for the at nyy and at cle ones because of their offenses but it's not like he's been shutting down opposing teams lately either. His ERA for those last starts is in the high 3's. (approx 3.92) (change that 30 run day to 10 for min and they're only in the middle as a run scoring group in MLB) Balt clearly has a pitiful O right now, Sea is in the middle. I suppose the definition of what you think mediocre is comes into play here--4? 4.5? 4.5 is the Kansas City team ERA (TB is so awful [over a run PG behind second? wow] I'm not even including them in this discussion) the second worst is still under 5. The biggest thing is just what you think Haren is? Is he a 3.7 ERA pitcher like his career numbers suggest? How much is aided by Oak's park? (I think Oak is clearly a huge pitchers park (ever notice how those guys all get way worse after leaving Oak even if it's to the NL?)) I just think he's a 4.5 guy in a good park and had a fluky first half to make you all think he's better than what he really is. But that's all subjective and I'm sure some of you would and could (try [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] ) argue against my claim for years.
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#20
07-23-2007, 02:25 AM
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Re: Orioles at Athletics 07-21
The numbers suggest that Oakland is a relatively neutral ballpark. Haren is definitely a much better than average pitcher. He is probably about a 3.5 ERA guy as far as skill level goes, whereas I would say a mediocre ERA is closer to 4.5.
Baltimore's offense is currently not that good, but Seattle's is actually pretty good and definitely so is Minnesota's. To face the Twins, Yankees, and Indians in a row all away is not an easy task.
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