Stud8: Kings up vs Open kings

[blumpkin]

Regarding 3rd st: I think this is a call. There are a lot of low cards dead assuming each player is starting with 3 low cards. There is an ace dead and I'm closing the action besides the bring-in. It's only 1 bet on 3rd, so if multiple players catch good I can get out cheaply on 4th. While it's not the ideal spot for a big pair, I think playing the hand is +EV assuming I make good decisions on 4th street, and later if I continue.

7 Card Stud High-Low ($10/$20), Ante $1, Bring-In $3 (converter)

3rd Street - (0.70 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 2: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 4: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 5: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 7: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___brings-in___calls
Seat 8: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls___calls

4th Street - (5.70 SB)

Seat 2: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 4: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 7: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 8: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds

5th Street - (4.85 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets___calls
Seat 4: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Hero: 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 7: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds

6th Street - (10.85 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___checks___calls
Seat 4: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___checks___folds
Hero: 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets

River - (12.85 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] xx___checks
Hero: 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___checks

Total pot: (12.85 BB)

[electrical]

I am far from an expert in this discipline, but I will hazard an opinion:

On six, if seat Two didn't pair with the 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], he just made a four- low draw, and I would think he'd be jamming.

His most likely hand is Kings-and-Threes (giving him any two of A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] under) with a four flush, no?

He raises third with three little spades, he just calls on Four because everybody caught bad against your probable pair of Kings, and on Fifth he now has a high pair, flush draw and three-low, and builds the pot by collecting an overcall from seat Four, who is drawing really slim.

If all that is right, then bet the river. He busted out and has a worse two pair.

If I'm wrong, what do you put him on?

[adanthar]

With his upcards you probably have a river value bet.

[Bartholow]

First thing I thought was bet the river.

As for third I can't help but look at this and say you're going to be against at least 3 low hands, maybe 4, and I still muck the kings. You're justification of "a lot of low cards must be dead" could be used ANY time you want to get into a multiway hand vs. low hands with a big pair, and I think you agree that's generally not a good plan.

[mscags]

Looks fine to me, I'd consider betting the river though even though your hand is quite transparent

[blumpkin]

[ QUOTE ]
With his upcards you probably have a river value bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's close. I'd like to hear your thoughts. I doubt this player will call with just kings, and I think I have to call an unlikely check/raise because he might be just check/raising for the hell of it with a low.

[Andy B]

With that many low hands willing to call $10 on third street, it is not to be expected that they will all bust. I think third is a fold.

I'd be tempted to value-bet the river, but I really don't see him calling, like, ever.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
With his upcards you probably have a river value bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's close. I'd like to hear your thoughts. I doubt this player will call with just kings, and I think I have to call an unlikely check/raise because he might be just check/raising for the hell of it with a low.

[/ QUOTE ]

"I have two kings, what are the odds of him having both of the other two?"

I know it doesn't seem that good, but weird stuff calls here.

edit: I suck at stud but generic poker knowledge is telling me that if you have *any* argument for limping 779 or whatever closing the action, 2KK isn't close, especially with that dead ace. The number of opponents isn't that problematic because you're alone for high and kings up should take it more than usual.

[cgrohman]

If I was going to play 3rd, I would probably re-raise in an attempt to get it heads up.

[blumpkin]

[ QUOTE ]
If I was going to play 3rd, I would probably re-raise in an attempt to get it heads up.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol