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#132
09-21-2007, 12:58 PM
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Re: Week 4 NCAA early lines thread
[ QUOTE ]
FYI-Though I screwed up in reading the line movements, I'm still going to be on LSU everyone of my models says USC is the play with spreads ranging from 10 to 13.5. I don't care. USC won't get across mid-field more than twice. My guess is only once. [/ QUOTE ] I think you underestimate Spurrier. Auburn's defense shut out LSU, Florida and Nebraska in the 2nd half last year. Against SC, we had to onside kick because we couldn't stop their offense. I see SC getting 13-17 and LSU getting 24-28. 
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#133
09-21-2007, 01:03 PM
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Re: Week 4 NCAA early lines thread
another big play
Michigan St -10.5 @ Notre Dame bet 3.09u to win 3u
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#134
09-21-2007, 01:17 PM
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Re: Week 4 NCAA early lines thread
why Michigan St?
-ND won't be able to stop them ND has and has had a terrible run defense under Weis. The Spartans bring in a pretty good rush squad and a philosophy committed to the run. The big boys of MSU will create great down situations where the Spartans will have success running and/or passing. MSU's philosophy resembles that of G Tech or Michigan under Mallett. It's obvious they will be running the ball. Yet, ND shows no capacity to stop that. -The nation's leader in sacks plays the nation's leader in allowing sacks Umm...there is a recipe for defensive TDs and shortfields. Sure, MSU isn't doing it verse the best schedule. But, it's not the weakest so far either. PItt is a real team, yet their passing attack was swallowed. PITT is better than ND by a decent margin. PITT was able to establish a run v the Spartans. I don't see the Irish achieving the same thing. --Dear Mr. Weis, it's too late for training camp hmmm...guess he wanted to see his team have a chance against somebody--themselves. HOwever, having the team go through full pad, hard-hitting practices is a huge blunder before facing a team as rough and physical as MSU. Even if ND hangs around into the late 3rd quarter, they'll be exhausted. MSU should dominate this game physically in another ugly loss for the Irish. It's weird as I've bet big against the Spartans the last two weeks (both winners), but find myself with them this week on a big spread with lots of noted prognosticators going the other way.
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#135
09-21-2007, 01:25 PM
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Re: Week 4 NCAA early lines thread
Excellent analysis myturn. And I think your comparison of Michigan and GT are spot on. I have not understood people being on ND all week when this is still a team that has yet to score an offensive touchdown and a defense giving up over 230 yards/game rushing. Their pass defense looks better than it is because with that much success running the ball on shortfield situations there is no need for an air attack.
I had 1unit on MSU -12 from earlier in the week but have added another unit at -11. Thanks for your analysis Myturn.
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#137
09-21-2007, 02:44 PM
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Re: Week 4 NCAA early lines thread
My thoughts (because I know you all see the genious BSP in me)
LSU will destroy SC, they will win by 3TD's or over (nobody has ever seen LSU's O go for an entire game because they own everyone - all due respect to Spurrier) ND (I like ND, I have season tix, huge fan) will once again get romped, by atleast 2 TD, I hope I am wrong because I will be there, but pretty sure about this one. They will score an offensive TD this week but like M2TR pointed out they CANNOT stop the run (nor the pass really) Also, haven't heard any talk about Oregon with a -17 spread, wow they will beat Stanford by more than 3 TD's if their D decides to come to the game... Also like the over in this game (60) Anyway I haven't had alot of time this week to analyze all the games but those are a few of my picks/thoughts... (also like Troy to cover, and PSU to beat MI in the big house, hopefully) Like Cal -13.5 against an Arizona team that couldn't run the ball if their life depended on it. Leaning toward Over and the pt's tonight with Tulsa, haven't decided. I will post my picks tonight when time permits
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#139
09-21-2007, 04:42 PM
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Re: Week 4 NCAA early lines thread
Michigan St. -11 (1u)
Maryland +3 (1u) LSU -18.5 (1u) Washington +6 (1u) Oregon -17 (1u) Oregon/Stanford over60 (1u) Purdue -13.5 (1u) Indiana +3 (1u) Troy -9 (1u) Oklahoma/Tulsa over40 (2u) Cal -13.5 (1u) Texas Tech -6 (1u) More to come... got effed w/ last nights bomb pass over, hopefully this weekend is a bit more friendly.
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#140
09-21-2007, 06:15 PM
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Re: Week 4 NCAA early lines thread
[ QUOTE ]
Oh, and my plays so far: Georgia Tech -3 (-115) (2.875u to win 2.5) Penn State -3 (2.75u to win 2.5) Wisconsin -8.5 (2.2u to win 2) - D'oh! Oklahoma -20 (2.2u to win 2) Idaho -1 (2.2u to win 2) East Carolina +26.5 (1.65u to win 1.5) Week 4 Leans: Connecticut +8 North Carolina +12.5 Houston -6.5/7 Indiana +3 Central Florida -7 Oregon -16 [/ QUOTE ] Final card: Week 4 plays: Georgia Tech -3 (-115) (2.875u to win 2.5) Penn State -3 (2.75u to win 2.5) Duke/Navy Over 51 (2.75u to win 2.5) Navy Team Total Over 32 (-115) (2.3u to win 2) San Jose St./Utah St. Under 47 (2.2u to win 2) Wisconsin -8.5 (2.2u to win 2) - D'oh! Oklahoma -20 (2.2u to win 2) Idaho -1 (2.2u to win 2) Purdue Team Total Over 40 (-115) (1.725u to win 1.5) East Carolina +26.5 (1.65u to win 1.5) Oregon St +11.5 (1.65u to win 1.5) Baylor/Buffalo Over 53.5 (0.825u to win 0.75) I will also bet UConn if it hits 10. Otherwise, that will be it.
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