Week 3 NCAA Picks

[Austiger]

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Now on:
Ohio State at Washington +4 (Risk 1.5u to win 1.44u)

Also added a unit on Louisville at -6.5 (-103)

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I saw where Ohio State forced 12 straight 3-and-outs against Akron. I have to wonder how Washington will respond to a little adversity. They have played pretty much from ahead all year.

edit- okay i realize that sounds funny when "all year" is two games, but whatever. I wonder how they will respond if OSU shuts them down for a few series. Will their young QB try and force it?

[billygrippo]

i took the money line on ND at +250

am i retarded or a genius? or maybe some kind of retard-genius

[bills217]

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One line I really like the look of that I'm going to wait until close to kickoff on is the Louisville/Kentucky under. I know L'ville's defense looked terrible last week, but 77 is an insanely high total. Last year, Louisville only reached that mark in 2 of their 13 games and Kentucky reached it in 3 of 13 and that's with them playing to that total against each other.

Really, the Louisville defense didn't lose that much coming into this season (6 of 11 starters returning, Steele thought they'd be better at every position group) and I think the MTSU game was more of a case of getting sloppy against a mediocre opponent than it was not having the skill to keep up. Kentucky's got 8 starters back on D and should improve enough to at least slow down the Cardinals' O. I'd still expect Louisville to win a relatively high-scoring game, but more along the lines of 38-28 than 48-38.

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All I can say about this is I don't see either stopping the other very much. Neither QB turns the ball over very much either.

I projected 76 so I think this is pretty close. If you will give me a team total of Kentucky at 28 I will gladly put $1k on it.

Edit: Something you may not be considering is 2 of Kentucky's top 3 defensive tackles will either be out or extremely banged-up for this game. And I think Steele is on crack to think that the U of L defense is better in all areas. They lost Akoye obv. and are replacing their entire secondary (which to no one's surprise has been where a lot of the problems are). You also have to consider that the first team D gave up 10 to Murray State, which went 1-10 in I-AA last season.

Edit again: Kentucky gave up 453 yards to a decidedly less high-powered Kent State offense last week, so...you are more optimistic about them than me, and that isn't a good sign (see avatar). If I were setting an O/U on U of L yards I'd prolly put it at about 575, and they got almost 700 in last year's game (albeit in Louisville).

[dmoney416]

Just realized I forgot to post my picks for the week:

Week 3 plays:

Michigan St -7 (-120) (3u to win 2.5)
Houston -14 (2.75u to win 2.5)
Ball St/Navy Over 51 (2.75u to win 2.5)
Alabama -3 (2.2u to win 2)
Western Michigan +20 (2.2u to win 2)
Cincinnati -9 (2.2u to win 2)
Toledo/Kansas Under 67 (2.2u to win 2)
Rice/Texas Tech Over 63 (2.2u to win 2)
Vanderbilt -5.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Central Michigan/Purdue Over 63.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Western Michigan ML +1350 (0.3u to win 4.05u)

Leans:

Temple +29
Toledo +22.5
Central Michigan +20
Navy -7

[bills217]

Iggy,

In all seriousness, I'll gladly put up $1500 against $1000 from you on Kentucky Over 28. I might also go even money on a spread of 7 just for fun on a smaller amount. Let's see if we can work something out. Performify can hold the $$$.

[pirateboy]

I love Ohio State -4. The Huskies have played teams they have superior speed to. Not the case with tOSU. I had Washington pegged as the 8th or 9th most talented team in the Pac 10, but the victory over Boise makes me wonder. Still, I think Ohio State could win by 2 TDs. COULD.

[New001]

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I love Ohio State -4. The Huskies have played teams they have superior speed to. Not the case with tOSU. I had Washington pegged as the 8th or 9th most talented team in the Pac 10, but the victory over Boise makes me wonder. Still, I think Ohio State could win by 2 TDs. COULD.

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Totally agree. I hate road favorites as much as anybody but OSU -4 looked good to me a couple days ago.

[ctompkin]

Week 3 picks for the record

Maryland +17 (-115) 2 units
Air Force +8 1 unit
UNC -3 1 unit
No Illinois -14 1 unit
Utah +14 3 units (Just piggybacking MyTurn's POTW here, thanks)
Michigan State -11 2 units
East Carolina +1 2 units
Kentucky +7 1 unit
Nebraska +10 1 unit
UTEP +6 2 units
UNLV +17 1 unit
Arkansas State -3 1 unit

[Austiger]

Adding UTEP +6.5 -110

It's dropped to 5.5 on Pinny and I just don't see it hitting 7 so I'm grabbing it now.

[Ichabod1985]

Illinois/Syracuse Over 43 1 Unit
Mississippi/Vanderbilt Over 45.5 1 Unit
Ohio St/Washington Over 41.5 1 Unit
Texas/UCF Over 48.5 1 Unit