need a plan vs a 2+2er

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you can mix up your lines here a ton with lots of different stuff that doesn't involve folding this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
We surely can't b/c without any history. So if you don't want to fold you need to c/c.

[fees]

checking and betting are both good here I would prob bet it though w/out histoyr and if he continues i would get tricky next time around with a big hand

[Nick Royale]

I like just bet/folding. I'm afraid a thinking player will realise we're not check/calling with a hand we're willing to felt. We'll have decent fe and if we're called we have some outs.

[riske]

[ QUOTE ]
I like just bet/folding. I'm afraid a thinking player will realise we're not check/calling with a hand we're willing to felt. We'll have decent fe and if we're called we have some outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is spot on imo.

[Noam Chomsky]

[ QUOTE ]
I like just bet/folding. I'm afraid a thinking player will realise we're not check/calling with a hand we're willing to felt. We'll have decent fe and if we're called we have some outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

We're not folding a Q, KK, AA or TT so why is fe relevant?

Also, just for the sake of discussion if:

[ QUOTE ]
a thinking player will realise we're not check/calling with a hand we're willing to felt.

[/ QUOTE ]

is true, we should c/c, c/c then right? Cause the thinking player, knowing that we aren't willing to felt should check behind all monsters/value hands on the turn and bet all bluffs?

fwiw, I think you have more than c/c or b/f available to you on this flop vs a good portion of 2p2ers though I think both of those lines are just fine.

[nazahl]

villain is willw9 btw

dunno why but I kinda had that feeling that he was either shoving or folding if I bet.

like what hand would just call on that flop if I bet? it hits enough of my range that he should be just giving up with most pp's unless he flopped a set. and he's definitely shoving flush draws, Qx, overpairs

[Resistance]

Anyone like a range merging nth level CRAI?

[Paul Thomson]

[ QUOTE ]
I like just bet/folding. I'm afraid a thinking player will realise we're not check/calling with a hand we're willing to felt. We'll have decent fe and if we're called we have some outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure bet-folds disguises the strength of our hand and Villain will likely put us on nuts or air, but I'm not sure if in a good way.

Since we 3-bet him once before in the same position, Villain might think that we're 3-betting light and raise us with AK assuming that he has 10 outs. If that's ever the case, then bet-folding is terrible.

I doubt we're ever folding out a better hand. So there's no FE in betting.

If the Villain does have TT or QQ which are reasonable hands to assume since he didn't 4-bet. Then I hate getting knocked off our sweet draw to the inside straight...when he inevitably pushes over our bet.

Do u think the Villain ever bets AK if checked to which he would have folded if we bet?

As for not being willing to felt on a turn blank card. Should we be willing to? Thats what I alluded to in my first post. It's not a sweet option but we might have to.

this sucks.

and i don't think that it's one of those situation where all the options are about equal EV so it really doesn't matter. I think one choice is probably significantly EV over others...i just can't figure out where the crux is.......

[Paul Thomson]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone like a range merging nth level CRAI?

[/ QUOTE ]

i thought of that. but i think he probably checks behind alot of mediocre made on the flop also like AQ and what not.

it's not bad if he'll call with his AK assuming that he has more outs then he has. or some weak pair that assumes we're doing it with AK.

[Requin]

Well this is awkward. I'm tempted to c/c once and then give up UI.

Edit: Well you're about a cointoss against a loosish PF range

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

60,390 games 0.091 secs 663,626 games/sec

Board: Qh Tc 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.498% 49.67% 00.83% 29996 500.00 { JcJs }
Hand 1: 49.502% 48.67% 00.83% 29394 500.00 { QQ+, TT-66, AQs-AJs, KQs, JTs, T9s, AQo }


Alot worse off against a tight PF range

29,700 games 0.002 secs 14,850,000 games/sec

Board: Qh Tc 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.717% 24.40% 00.32% 7246 95.00 { JcJs }
Hand 1: 75.283% 74.96% 00.32% 22264 95.00 { QQ+, TT, AQs, AQo }


Against the tight range you do so badly I might just c/f

Against the loose one, you have a bunch of EQ against it. Can you bet call? Let's see a loose PF/loose shoving range (I didn't include KQs, maybe I should have):

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

39,600 games 0.001 secs 39,600,000 games/sec

Board: Qh Tc 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.987% 32.88% 01.11% 13019 440.00 { JcJs }
Hand 1: 66.013% 64.90% 01.11% 25701 440.00 { QQ+, TT, 88, AQs-AJs, JTs, T9s, AQo }

Against this we can't call so I don't like bet/call, maybe bet/fold if we think he has the loose PF/loose shoving range but we had so much EQ against his loose PF (and I think he might stab a bunch of hands) so i you put him on loose PF and think he stabs with crappy hands like a small pp we can probably c/c profitably.

Against loose PF/tighter shoving range we oviously can't bet/call, so again c/c seems best if we think he stabs.


Cliff notes:
If you think he's loose in calling PF and will stab if you check a halfway decent % of the time with crap hands, then c/c is probably best. If he's loose PF but won't stab alot bet/fold has some merit I think, although I was too lazy to work out FE and such. If he's tight PF because of your nitty image just c/f. Never bet/call.

I did his quickly and don't really want to get into it that much, but please point out any glaring mistakes. There might be a bunch I don't usually spend the time I should working with Pstove