Two Plus Two Newer Archives Would you put your life on the line?
 FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

#1
11-04-2007, 05:57 PM
 AlfilRey Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 141
Would you put your life on the line?

Walking back, mildly drunk, a friend and I got into a discussion about a hypothetical scenario, where both of us had very different views. It's not really relevant who thought what, but one of us said a definite yes to the scenario and the other said no.

Here's the scenario:

There's a guy pointing a gun at your head. He has a suitcase with \$10m in it. He offers you to pick a number from 1 to 50. You then have to write it down. He then has one attempt at guessing that number. If he guesses right, he pulls the trigger. If not, he hands you a suitcase with \$10m and you walk away unscathed.

You do not have to pick a number. You can leave immediately instead.

Do you gamble with your life?

If yes, at what point would your answer become a no (i.e. pick a number from 1-40, or 1-25, or 1-10.

If no, at what point would you take the gamble? (1-100, 1-1,000, etc)
#2
11-04-2007, 06:14 PM
 XXXNoahXXX Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Boston Posts: 8,159
Re: Would you put your life on the line?

wow dude this is like so deep and stuff
#3
11-04-2007, 06:24 PM
 2/325Falcon Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 1,952
Re: Would you put your life on the line?

You're both idiots because I'm wearing a bulletproof helmet and always get the moniez!
#4
11-04-2007, 06:29 PM
 mookboi Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: Fitty NL Posts: 814
Re: Would you put your life on the line?

So, 49 times you win 10M, and 1 time you lose life.

0 = 49(10M) + 1(-X)

X = \$490,000,000.

If you value your life at more than \$490M, it's a -EV gamble. Personally, I thought for a while if I value my life at more than 490M\$. Furthermore I think the varience in this game is too high for me to be comfortable, even if I value my life at less than that, and I walk away.

Same situation, with 5000 #s, and 100K in suitcase, is less varience but still not good enough for me IMO. So I guess I value my life higher than that. If you make the #s 10x (i.e. make required value life to breakeven around \$5B) I might reconsider).
#5
11-04-2007, 06:30 PM
 Keyser. Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: cr blog! Posts: 4,870
Re: Would you put your life on the line?

I'd take 1 in 10 probably.
#6
11-04-2007, 06:32 PM
 Taso Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Philadelphia, PA Posts: 2,098
Re: Would you put your life on the line?

lol, it's really hard to say without actually having this happen, as I don't know if my answer would be the same with the gun to my head.

I think I'd probably go with 1 in 10 as well. I'd be pretty comfortable with 1-20, and very with 1 in 50.
#7
11-04-2007, 06:40 PM
 jjshabado Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 1,879
Re: Would you put your life on the line?

Don't we do this thread once a month?
#8
11-04-2007, 06:41 PM
 Shizzle12345 Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Mordegai, the jiddish clown Posts: 3,557
Re: Would you put your life on the line?

ill flip a coin for 10mill, im so degen [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Also look at it this way, now you will die one out of 50 times. basicly the possibility is pretty real that you will die. BUT according to this site,
http://www.funny2.com/odds.htm
the odds of dying in a car accident the next year is 1 in 77 times. So if you take those odds, its either not driving your car the next year or taking 1 million \$, so then it would be an easy choice!
#9
11-04-2007, 06:42 PM
 AlfilRey Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 141
Re: Would you put your life on the line?

[ QUOTE ]
Don't we do this thread once a month?

[/ QUOTE ]

it's only the 4th of november
#10
11-04-2007, 06:43 PM
 jjshabado Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 1,879
Re: Would you put your life on the line?

[ QUOTE ]
BUT according to this site,
http://www.funny2.com/odds.htm
the odds of dying in a car accident the next year is 77 to 1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, thats [censored]. 1 out of every 78 drivers does not die every year.

 Thread Tools Display Modes Linear Mode

 Posting Rules You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is Off Forum Rules
 Forum Jump User Control Panel Private Messages Subscriptions Who's Online Search Forums Forums Home Two Plus Two     Two Plus Two Internet Magazine     The Two Plus Two Bonus Program     Special Sklansky Forum     About the Forums     MOD DISCUSSION     Test General Poker Discussion     Beginners Questions     Books and Publications     Televised Poker     News, Views, and Gossip     Brick and Mortar     Home Poker     Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance     Poker Theory     Poker Legislation Coaching/Training     Stoxpoker.com     DeucesCracked.com German Forums     Poker Allgemein: Poker in general     Strategie: Holdem NL cash [German]     Strategie: Sonstige     Internet/Online [German]     BBV [German]     Small Talk [German] French Forums     Forum Francophone     Strategie [French]     BBV [French] Limit Texas Hold'em     Texas Hold'em     High Stakes Limit     Medium Stakes Limit     Small Stakes Limit     Micro Stakes Limit     Mid-High Stakes Shorthanded     Small Stakes Shorthanded     Limit-->NL PL/NL Texas Hold'em     High Stakes     Medium Stakes     Small Stakes     Micro Stakes     Full Ring Tournament Poker     MTT Strategy     High Stakes MTT     MTT Community     STT Strategy     Tournament Circuit/WSOP Other Poker     Omaha/8     Omaha High     Stud     Heads Up Poker     Other Poker Games General Gambling     Probability     Psychology     Sports Betting     Other Gambling Games     Entertainment Betting     Money Making and Other Business Discussion Internet Gambling     Internet Gambling     Internet Bonuses     Affiliates/RakeBack     Software     Poker Site Software, Skins, & Networks 2+2 Communities     Other Other Topics     The Lounge: Discussion+Review     EDF     BBV4Life Other Topics     Sporting Events     Politics     Business, Finance, and Investing     Travel     Science, Math, and Philosophy     Health and Fitness     Student Life     Golf     Video Games     Puzzles and Other Games     Laughs or Links!     Computer Technical Help     Bin Sponsored Support Forums     RakebackNetwork     RakeBackDepot     RakeReduction.com Rakeback     PokerSavvy

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:12 AM.