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  #1  
Old 11-04-2007, 05:57 PM
AlfilRey AlfilRey is offline
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Default Would you put your life on the line?

Walking back, mildly drunk, a friend and I got into a discussion about a hypothetical scenario, where both of us had very different views. It's not really relevant who thought what, but one of us said a definite yes to the scenario and the other said no.

Here's the scenario:

There's a guy pointing a gun at your head. He has a suitcase with $10m in it. He offers you to pick a number from 1 to 50. You then have to write it down. He then has one attempt at guessing that number. If he guesses right, he pulls the trigger. If not, he hands you a suitcase with $10m and you walk away unscathed.

You do not have to pick a number. You can leave immediately instead.

Do you gamble with your life?

If yes, at what point would your answer become a no (i.e. pick a number from 1-40, or 1-25, or 1-10.

If no, at what point would you take the gamble? (1-100, 1-1,000, etc)
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  #2  
Old 11-04-2007, 06:14 PM
XXXNoahXXX XXXNoahXXX is offline
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Default Re: Would you put your life on the line?

wow dude this is like so deep and stuff
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  #3  
Old 11-04-2007, 06:24 PM
2/325Falcon 2/325Falcon is offline
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Default Re: Would you put your life on the line?

You're both idiots because I'm wearing a bulletproof helmet and always get the moniez!
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  #4  
Old 11-04-2007, 06:29 PM
mookboi mookboi is offline
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Default Re: Would you put your life on the line?

So, 49 times you win 10M, and 1 time you lose life.

0 = 49(10M) + 1(-X)

X = $490,000,000.

If you value your life at more than $490M, it's a -EV gamble. Personally, I thought for a while if I value my life at more than 490M$. Furthermore I think the varience in this game is too high for me to be comfortable, even if I value my life at less than that, and I walk away.

Same situation, with 5000 #s, and 100K in suitcase, is less varience but still not good enough for me IMO. So I guess I value my life higher than that. If you make the #s 10x (i.e. make required value life to breakeven around $5B) I might reconsider).
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  #5  
Old 11-04-2007, 06:30 PM
Keyser. Keyser. is offline
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Default Re: Would you put your life on the line?

I'd take 1 in 10 probably.
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  #6  
Old 11-04-2007, 06:32 PM
Taso Taso is offline
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Default Re: Would you put your life on the line?

lol, it's really hard to say without actually having this happen, as I don't know if my answer would be the same with the gun to my head.

I think I'd probably go with 1 in 10 as well. I'd be pretty comfortable with 1-20, and very with 1 in 50.
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  #7  
Old 11-04-2007, 06:40 PM
jjshabado jjshabado is offline
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Default Re: Would you put your life on the line?

Don't we do this thread once a month?
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  #8  
Old 11-04-2007, 06:41 PM
Shizzle12345 Shizzle12345 is offline
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Default Re: Would you put your life on the line?

ill flip a coin for 10mill, im so degen [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Also look at it this way, now you will die one out of 50 times. basicly the possibility is pretty real that you will die. BUT according to this site,
http://www.funny2.com/odds.htm
the odds of dying in a car accident the next year is 1 in 77 times. So if you take those odds, its either not driving your car the next year or taking 1 million $, so then it would be an easy choice!
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  #9  
Old 11-04-2007, 06:42 PM
AlfilRey AlfilRey is offline
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Default Re: Would you put your life on the line?

[ QUOTE ]
Don't we do this thread once a month?

[/ QUOTE ]

it's only the 4th of november
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  #10  
Old 11-04-2007, 06:43 PM
jjshabado jjshabado is offline
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Default Re: Would you put your life on the line?

[ QUOTE ]
BUT according to this site,
http://www.funny2.com/odds.htm
the odds of dying in a car accident the next year is 77 to 1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, thats [censored]. 1 out of every 78 drivers does not die every year.
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