Two Plus Two Newer Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Newer Archives > Tournament Poker > High Stakes MTT

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 10-17-2007, 11:36 PM
ur2barredout ur2barredout is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: 305
Posts: 89
Default Does this river bluff work 2/3 the time??

I made the isolation raise because the guy had been limping in early pos a lot. Board is kinda coordinated on the flop to cbet into two. I bet the turn and the guy called very quickly. Thoughts
Full Tilt Poker, NL Hold'em Tournament, $16,000 Guarantee (Rebuy), 200/400 Blinds, 50 Ante, 9 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

BTN: 10,269
SB: 6,270
BB: 18,905
UTG: 43,633
UTG+1: 40,575
UTG+2: 25,082
Hero (MP1): 49,105
MP2: 19,849
CO: 37,922

Pre-Flop: (1,050) 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP1)
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls 400, UTG+2 folds, Hero raises to 1,600, MP2 folds, CO calls 1,600, BTN folds, UTG+1 calls 1,200

Flop: (5,850) [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3 (3 Players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: (5,850) [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A (3 Players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets 4,400, CO calls 4,400, UTG+1 folds

River: (14,650) [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2 (2 Players)
Hero bets 43,055 and is All-In,
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 10-18-2007, 01:07 AM
psyduck psyduck is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 3,149
Default Re: Does this river bluff work 2/3 the time??

What are you hoping he folds on the river? What are you representing?

Do you even have to represent anything when he basically cannot call without a straight?
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 10-18-2007, 03:32 AM
WarDekar WarDekar is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 2,410
Default Re: Does this river bluff work 2/3 the time??

[ QUOTE ]
What are you hoping he folds on the river? What are you representing?

Do you even have to represent anything when he basically cannot call without a straight?

[/ QUOTE ]

We're representing very little and if villain is thinking he's definitely calling with less than a straight
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 10-18-2007, 06:01 AM
psyduck psyduck is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 3,149
Default Re: Does this river bluff work 2/3 the time??

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What are you hoping he folds on the river? What are you representing?

Do you even have to represent anything when he basically cannot call without a straight?

[/ QUOTE ]

We're representing very little and if villain is thinking he's definitely calling with less than a straight

[/ QUOTE ]

If villain is non-thinking and an unknown, the turn instacall means a marginal hand.

What marginal hand is snap-calling turn that includes a 4 that is also calling river? Most people can't hero call AQ-A7 on the river.

Is AQ-A7 and missed flush draws more than 65% of his range?
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 10-18-2007, 08:26 AM
WarDekar WarDekar is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 2,410
Default Re: Does this river bluff work 2/3 the time??

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What are you hoping he folds on the river? What are you representing?

Do you even have to represent anything when he basically cannot call without a straight?

[/ QUOTE ]

We're representing very little and if villain is thinking he's definitely calling with less than a straight

[/ QUOTE ]

If villain is non-thinking and an unknown, the turn instacall means a marginal hand.

What marginal hand is snap-calling turn that includes a 4 that is also calling river? Most people can't hero call AQ-A7 on the river.

Is AQ-A7 and missed flush draws more than 65% of his range?

[/ QUOTE ]

It doesn't matter if his marginal hand includes a 4, he knows we don't have a 4 either.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 10-18-2007, 11:59 AM
getballed getballed is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: NY
Posts: 193
Default Re: Does this river bluff work 2/3 the time??

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What are you hoping he folds on the river? What are you representing?

Do you even have to represent anything when he basically cannot call without a straight?

[/ QUOTE ]

We're representing very little and if villain is thinking he's definitely calling with less than a straight

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 10-18-2007, 12:40 PM
WarDekar WarDekar is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 2,410
Default Re: Does this river bluff work 2/3 the time??

And for the record, if we DID have a 4, I would overbet this river every single time.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 10-19-2007, 09:49 AM
Vetgirig Vetgirig is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Sweden, Västerås
Posts: 152
Default Re: Does this river bluff work 2/3 the time??

The problem with the overbet is that if we get called we've made this from a minor loss to a major loss because we overbet the river. HERO in this hand is repping an A and even AK should call in this case.


So this a a very high variance play that many donkeys use which probably are EV-.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:37 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions Inc.