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  #51  
Old 10-17-2007, 11:38 AM
Ansky Ansky is offline
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Default Re: A5s in blind battle.

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I am advocating using reasonable expectations for various scenarios as a sort of alarm system to warn oneself that you are drifting into murkier and murkier risk-invested waters.


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Yeah see, that is terrible. Really it is.

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In my experience (which admittedly does not include high-level live play),

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I'm not surprised. What do you typically play?

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what prevents very many good players from becoming great players is that they are not very good at perceiving relative risk.

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There are a lot of things which keep a good player from becoming a great player, whatever the [censored] you just mentioned is certainly not one of them.

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They are good at obtaining an edge in a hand (reading an opponent, tactical play, bet sizing, etc), but they are not good at perceiving that their incurred risk is excessive relative to the avg opp they can expect in their current M-bracket (and other relative opp metrics).

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ev ev ev ev ev ev ev ev ev ev ev ev ev

... is all that matters. Variance control? lol.

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If what you said was correct for tournament play, then why wouldn't one always attempt escalate the stakes to playing for stacks for even the tiniest perceived EV+ ?

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I would generally pass up VERY small edges, but nothing too sizable.

What is your knowledge based on Baltostar if you don't mind me asking?
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  #52  
Old 10-17-2007, 11:54 AM
baltostar baltostar is offline
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Default Re: A5s in blind battle.

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What is your knowledge based on Baltostar if you don't mind me asking?

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Based on following (in descending order of importance) :

1. logical independent thinking
2. reading 1000s of hands on these boards and realizing detrimental patterns of good players
3. 10 years experience as a highly successful trader
4. extensive study of most of the poker literature
5. playing multi-100s of online STTs and MTTs
6. 5 years experience successful pedigree handicapping
7. student of risk-analysis, probability, mathematics at top-tier universities and independently
8. experience successfully coaching others in sports which they are better than me

But you should never listen to anyone based on their credentials. You should always break-down what they are saying into logic elements and question whether it really works.

Yeah, Raymer is a very good player, yeah Raymer won the WSOP, but when he says "I'm not good enough to pass up any EV+ opportunity" you have to forget his credentials and really think hard if that is logically justified thinking.
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  #53  
Old 10-17-2007, 11:54 AM
bluesbassman bluesbassman is offline
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Posts: 1,176
Default Re: A5s in blind battle.

[ QUOTE ]
They are good at obtaining an edge in a hand (reading an opponent, tactical play, bet sizing, etc), but they are not good at perceiving that their incurred risk is excessive relative to the avg opp they can expect in their current M-bracket (and other relative opp metrics).

They over-focus on EV+ to the detriment of stack variance control.



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This is just a long-winded way of claiming that these other posters, according to you, value cEV too much over $EV. (I don't agree with your claim, fwiw.)
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  #54  
Old 10-17-2007, 12:04 PM
Supwithbates Supwithbates is offline
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Default Re: A5s in blind battle.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
They are good at obtaining an edge in a hand (reading an opponent, tactical play, bet sizing, etc), but they are not good at perceiving that their incurred risk is excessive relative to the avg opp they can expect in their current M-bracket (and other relative opp metrics).

They over-focus on EV+ to the detriment of stack variance control.



[/ QUOTE ]

This is just a long-winded way of claiming that these other posters, according to you, value cEV too much over $EV. (I don't agree with your claim, fwiw.)

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  #55  
Old 10-17-2007, 01:04 PM
ASPoker8 ASPoker8 is offline
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Default Re: A5s in blind battle.

[ QUOTE ]


1. logical independent thinking
2. reading 1000s of hands on these boards and realizing detrimental patterns of good players
3. 10 years experience as a highly successful trader
4. extensive study of most of the poker literature
5. playing multi-100s of online STTs and MTTs
6. 5 years experience successful pedigree handicapping
7. student of risk-analysis, probability, mathematics at top-tier universities and independently
8. experience successfully coaching others in sports which they are better than me



[/ QUOTE ]


These make me (and most good poker players) less likely to believe you are knowledgeable about poker.

Ever consider the fact that you are thinking about situations the wrong way?

I am infinitely more likely to listen to someone like Randal, who is 19 and has relied on poker for income since 16-17 than someone who has a list of useless (poker-wise) accomplishments like Baltosar.
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  #56  
Old 10-17-2007, 01:39 PM
MLG MLG is offline
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Default Re: A5s in blind battle.

I can't believe Im about to say this, but I don't totally hate what balto has said in this thread. Some of it is conceptually awkward, and backwards. All of it is presented in a rediculously pompous and condescending manner, but some of it if translated into normal poker talk seems quite useful.
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  #57  
Old 10-17-2007, 01:59 PM
Exitonly Exitonly is offline
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Default Re: A5s in blind battle.

[ QUOTE ]
I can't believe Im about to say this, but I don't totally hate what balto has said in this thread. Some of it is conceptually awkward, and backwards. All of it is presented in a rediculously pompous and condescending manner, but some of it if translated into normal poker talk seems quite useful.

[/ QUOTE ]
I was going to make this same post! And now i'm goingn to quote it.
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  #58  
Old 10-17-2007, 02:18 PM
shaundeeb shaundeeb is offline
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Default Re: A5s in blind battle.

balostar your 800 post thread can be summed up in 2:

POT CONTROL

you repeat some common ideas and just use a stronger vocabulary in a way to confuse the reader so much that they assume it's right. If MLG/Shaniac or some other really sick mtter who doesn't post much posted the same things it would be taken as pure gold whether it was right or not. It sucks bt the inverse is true you posting what you did will be dismissed before it's even read. When I read it I see what you are saying and it's not as revolutionary and different as you think we just didn't articulate it like you.


Yes you are successful in life congrats I was going to be a trader too before poker but guess what I bet you aren't a +EV MTTer in 100fo+ online right now. But those posting are... so why not let us help you get better like you helped others. Instead of being too egotistical to even respond to people better then you at POKER, because they are younger then you or not as well read as yourself.

I feel like stephennuts now.
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  #59  
Old 10-17-2007, 02:34 PM
baltostar baltostar is offline
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Posts: 541
Default Re: A5s in blind battle.

[ QUOTE ]
balostar your 800 post thread can be summed up in 2:

POT CONTROL

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First off, I could care less about how old people are, unless they demonstrate a correlation between age and shallowness. In fact, I deliberately dress, look, act, etc. and hang out with people far younger than me because they have a vested interest in tearing the established stagnant boring crap down rather than reinforcing it.

Second, what I am elucidating is not pot control per se. Pot control is deployed in proportion to the level of uncertainty you have regarding your opponent's holding, especially it's strength in relation to your own.

The bands (two-sided risk boundaries) of reasonable expectation for hand scenarios I am theorizing are useful in avoiding being drawn into marginal situations where the error bands (std dev) of your perception of cEV are out-of-proportion to the the relative opp of the hand vs avg opp expected for your current M-bracket.

Exercising pot control does not preclude playing for very large pots. It's just your attempt to minimize the damage if you are wrong. If opponent has read that you believe you are marginally ahead he can still move stakes up significantly. Typically you realize too late that your perceived cEV was too high.
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  #60  
Old 10-17-2007, 02:45 PM
MLG MLG is offline
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Default Re: A5s in blind battle.

balto,
Basically what you are saying (in reference to this specific situation) is that playing a marginal hand oop and relying on your postflop skills is something that should be done sparingly. Your reasons are that even if it is a +EV situation, it is very marginallyy +EV and when playing against a good opponent who knows how to apply pressure, your varience will be rocketed through the levels you should be comfortable with. If your claim is that many players don't take this into consideration I agree with you. If your claim is that many players overestimate their postflop ev when making that decision, I agree with you. Correct me if Im wrong.

P.S. If those are your points you have merit, but I would be willing to wager that specifically gobbo, in specifically this situation has thought these things through.
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