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  #91  
Old 11-25-2007, 02:36 PM
TheNewf TheNewf is offline
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Default Re: Apathy or unquenched desire?

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If you succeed only 30% of the time in baseball you better be a damn good shortstop.

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Or be short, white, "scrappy" and full of "heart."

fwiw I played baseball for 13 years and it took me at least a few of those years to stop getting super angry at myself if i made an out. Maybe I just don't handle failure well.

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I got mad at myself for like the first 13 years I played. I think team sports are much worse because you're letting the whole team down not just yourself. At some point I realized this was just making me play worse and there was no need for it so I just stopped caring as much. And that's how I became the apathetic [censored] I am today. But I'm still incredibly driven to succeed.
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  #92  
Old 11-25-2007, 02:38 PM
Todd Terry Todd Terry is offline
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Default Re: Apathy or unquenched desire?

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Anyone that is winning way more than 2x avg is going to have an absurdly high ROI, do you not see that?

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wrong it's closer to a reverse bell curve if you are playing more optimally than your opponents. So you can finish 2x avg 1st and will be less then them in other finishing positions. While having a solid ROI not a massively larger ROI. Just because you are winning 2x as often as others you will be finishing less in other places then avg.

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Dude I never argued that you having 2x the win avg means you also have 2x 2nd place, 2x 3rd, etc.

Look at the math I did above, it assumes 2x wins and the REST OF YOUR CASHES (A CONSERVATIVE 15% ITM, hell the tourney I took prize-pool from you should probably cash 20%) are the last place casher and your ROI would be 80%.

If you won 2.5x avg and had a normal distribution, your ROI would probably be like 200%+

Yes I'm throwing that number out of my ass, but I'm busy betting and multi-tabling so I can't actually figure it out, but it's going to be way higher than you think.

You all way over estimate how often you can win these long-term.

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If you are 2x more likely to finish 1st, your likelihood of finishing 2nd is going to have to be close to 2x, and same for 3rd, etc. It's completely impossible to be 2x more likely to finish 1st while being 1/2 as likely to finish 2nd.

I think it would be a real struggle to come up with a distribution that makes any sense where a player is well over 2x average to win but his ITM % is between 13 and 15%.

I also think the structure of a tournament makes a big difference here -- the more players and the shorter the playing time, the less likely that the cream will consistently rise to the top, because the luck factor, which we all know is huge to begin with, is going to be magnified. I think this includes most online tourneys, some obviously more than others. Field strength also has an influence, it determines the "average" that we're comparing against.

If great players played the WSOP ME, which has a phenomenal structure and weak field, once a week, I think we'd see massive ROIs, and players, I don't know, as much as 10x more likely to win than others. OTOH, I've been toying with the theory that superslow structures favor crappy players, since it makes it much easier to simply wait for cards. If you look at the results of the last few WSOP MEs and WPT Championships, there are a lot of people at the final tables who most would not consider to be great, or even good players.
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  #93  
Old 11-27-2007, 01:40 AM
Apathy Apathy is offline
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Default Re: Apathy or unquenched desire?

<----
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  #94  
Old 11-27-2007, 02:01 AM
Clayton Clayton is offline
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Default Re: Apathy or unquenched desire?

i was gonna make an unquenched desire gimmick account but im lazy, someone without a life plz help
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  #95  
Old 11-27-2007, 02:30 AM
kleath kleath is offline
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Default Re: Apathy or unquenched desire?

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ICM clearly shows that it is sometimes best not to make the decision that gives you the best chance of winning the tournament.

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ICM is also not the end all be all of equity calculation, even in SNGs there are situations where you should be ignoring ICM(not even that uncommon), I think if someone REALLY did a lot of work in the field of math for MTTs it would be shown ICM doesnt apply nearly as much as most think it does. cEV is just a crutch used in general, I dont think anyone really has a full grasp of what various stack sizes are worth though I think some people have an idea, there are so many variables its a truly interesting problem. Good discussion going on in this thread, I like it.

Also I think it was a really REALLY low class move for nath to post dbs, though I agree somewhat with his underlying point relating to tournament equity.
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  #96  
Old 11-27-2007, 06:20 PM
WJL WJL is offline
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Default Re: Apathy or unquenched desire?

You know, I might be wrong, but I think . . .

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I also think the structure of a tournament makes a big difference here -- the more players and the shorter the playing time, the less likely that the cream will consistently rise to the top, because the luck factor, which we all know is huge to begin with, is going to be magnified.

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not =

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OTOH, I've been toying with the theory that superslow structures favor crappy players, since it makes it much easier to simply wait for cards.

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Just sayin' . . . sounds like us crappy players are going to win no matter what the structure is . . .

On the topic at hand, I think what I try to strive for is a sort of quiet focus that leaves my mind able to think clearly while retaining enough of that fear/desire to make possible the sort of gut-level decisions that are beyond the mathematics of the game. If I'm too wound-up, I can't think as clearly, but if I'm too apathetic, I'll miss some of the whispers from my gut that tell me something unusual is happening here. Can't always do it, but I try to practice it.
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  #97  
Old 11-27-2007, 06:47 PM
EC10 EC10 is offline
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Default Re: Apathy or unquenched desire?

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i was gonna make an unquenched desire gimmick account but im lazy, someone without a life plz help

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Posts: 14638

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  #98  
Old 11-27-2007, 07:32 PM
Clayton Clayton is offline
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Default Re: Apathy or unquenched desire?

touche
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  #99  
Old 11-28-2007, 04:31 AM
10K-in-Clay 10K-in-Clay is offline
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Default Re: Apathy or unquenched desire?

Interesting thread theres some cool posts in there...

lately i haven't been playing much tournament poker as i have been able to make a much better living playing proffesssional soccer-baseball in canada.
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  #100  
Old 11-28-2007, 04:09 PM
Stumpy Stumpy is offline
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Default Re: Apathy or unquenched desire?

Shaun & Nath,

I think most of the time something is -EV on the surface but +EV long run it probably means there is some great strength/weakness to your game that you're getting into or avoiding by making that play. Taking the 45% chance to double if you were a great short stack player may not be right, but if you excel at pressuring people, then maybe it is.

Nath,

I don't think the stats you're posting mean much of anything, because you're both freqeuntly playing in tournaments with $20k+ first place prizes.
One extra good run in those easily tips things.

However, if you think they mean something, here's a comparison of you and Rizen.



Look at the Avg. Finish numbers. You're going out in early / early middle almost twice as often as he does.
I can't imagine that means Rizen is taking lots of gambles early, but he has a better ROI.
(And it'd be even better if you only look at his NL Tournies.)

When Rizen makes the money, he final tables 25% of the time.
You do 36% of the time, and have been top 3 almost twice as often as he has.
I think that shows top 3 is not all there is to MTT profitability.

And shockingly, that there's more than one way to win at this game.
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