Hand 1: 100/200 live vs TheTakeover

[LAgambol]

i would call, i dont think he check raises with JTo on the flop. i think he has AcXc here over 50% of the time.

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
As played, I'd fold because of the reasons stated above. He should put you on a King a large % of the time.

If he views you as solid, I would raise over a turn bet. I like the check behind though.

[/ QUOTE ]

agree on check behind turn, what are we putting him on the river, squarely 44 or TJ? Doesn't he bet the turn with TJ almost always? Can he be value betting worse hands here on the river?

tc

[/ QUOTE ]

I definitely don't know Nick's game that well, but I don't think it's that unlikely he was either going for a turn c/r with JT, or checking 44 because he expects to lose most worse hands if he bets the turn. (Or just to be tricky and have FPS)

I think KQo is the most likely hand for him, even if he raises it up preflop like 75% of the time. If he always raises KQ here preflop, it might be a call.

The main reason I fold is bc I don't see how Nick would view that river as a good bluffing opportunity.

Also, he might be able to have KT or K9, but I wouldn't expect him to raise flop with it. Again though, I don't know his game.

[markuisis]

[ QUOTE ]
i would call, i dont think he check raises with JTo on the flop. i think he has AcXc here over 50% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

what hands is he expecting to get value from on the river with his bet then?

[LAgambol]

he doesn't have to be betting for value, he knows its a tough board for OP to call, OP would need at minimum a K 10 to call

[Jason Strasser (strassa2)]

given your style of play, I sorta like a flop 3 bet because I think nick will 4-bet all in lighter than most here....

I think turn check is no brainer here, and I'd fold the river. He's rarely going to try to bluff you in this game.

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
i dunno if u have to drag shania into it, i just think its the best play for anyone that isnt underrolled. he will fold a ton

[/ QUOTE ]

A lot of the hands that he folds are behind and drawing very slim vs our hand. There isn't much need to fold them out.

I also think there's a very decent chance he's going for a c/r with a hand like 44 or JT or a c/c with AcXc.

What better hands are we trying folding out? KQ, K4 and Q4. AT maybe?

Can't we fold most of those out with a river bet and not risk being blown off our big draw?

[ QUOTE ]
and if the clubs get there he might even call lighter not believing u would pot turn with a flushdraw and not believing u would shove river with the broadway if the flush gets there.

[/ QUOTE ]

The only bluff we can have if we pot turn and shove a club river is TP turned into a bluff, right?

All that said, betting the turn is a good play and makes you very annoying to play against, but I think I like a check a little better.

[EmpireMaker2]

Is this like KQ 70% of the time?

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
given your style of play, I sorta like a flop 3 bet because I think nick will 4-bet all in lighter than most here....


[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I kinda want to also. I kept thinking 'I wish you raised this preflop so that we can get it in here'

We are ahead of a lot of draws that might possibly get it in. Getting all-in v Tc8c would be fun.

[raptor517]

i think u played it fine, though i 3 bet the flop a pretty decent % of the time. i also fold river. hes smart guy i think i doubt he would fire with bricked clubs, and i highly doubt hes value betting worse. tough spot.

[moneyymakerr]

i call