Clemson @ Va Tech (10/26)

[droopy0021]

YTD picks posted 3-1 +8.3 units

Clemson -4 over Va Tech (-105 Pinny) 6 units (so far)

I read Iggy's pick of Clemson -5 and almost jumped out of my chair when I saw the line went down. Response to Iggy's post someone said line moved a couple times they tried to bet Clemson. I expected -6 or so.

Reasons why Clemson should be good:

1) Look at who they've played.

Va Tech wins (Nobody!): Duke, NC, Cincinnati, So Miss (minus their best RB), Northeastern
losses: BC, Ga Tech

Clemson: only loss to BC by 1.
wins: Ga Tech (dominated), Florida St (road), Wake Forest (road), NC, La Tech, Temple (yes, even Temple does count as D-1 win)

2) Va Tech will have to be one dimensional & throw. Clemson did a good job shutting down stud in Ga Tech's Calvin Johnson (Va Tech didn't fare as well vs Ga Tech). Here are Clemson's rushing stats allowed (in order of opponents, most recent first):

37-88
29-111 (Temple, best yards per carry average!!!)
31-31
29-33
22-54
38-102
37-110
34-47

Some of Va Tech's offensive rushing totals:

28-33 (BC)
27-42 (Ga Tech, they were down early & threw 53 times)
33-145 (Cincy)
38-102 (Duke)

Not a stellar rushing team, while they have had success throwing in some of those games....but still, Duke is Duke.

3) Clemson offense. Freshman Spiller is continuing to get better and provide dominant Clemoson rushing attack another option to Davis. Chansi Stuckey, WR who's been out for past 3 weeks, expected back. They did lose top guard Roman Fry for year on 3rd play vs. Ga Tech, but they still had running success Saturday w/ junior backup.

I would hope to see a game where Va Tech struggles to get to 13 and Clemson pulls away with the constants you love to wager on: running & team defense. Plus a QB (Procter) that has had some good performances and is getting his top target back.

Might be my POTY by the time Thursday rolls around. Get your bets in early!

[iggymcfly]

Honestly, I don't think matchups even matter here, because Clemson doesn't have a weakness on either side of the ball. They have one of the best defenses in the country, both passing and rushing, their running game is tremendous, and their passing game's very good too. The only thing they do poorly is special teams, which I guess works in VT's favor, but if they keep scoring TDs, VT can only score one point at a time.

The only thing that really worries me here is the line move. It seems like every time I have a POTW where the line moves dramatically in my favor, it turns out to be a big loser. Florida State vs. Troy screwed me over big time as did Oregon vs. Washington State last week. I'm thinking it's just the "big name at home should play a close game" thing, because Va. Tech looks downright terrible this year. GT and BC were the only Top 40 teams they played this year, and they lost to BC 22-3 and trailed GT 38-13 in the fourth quarter. I really don't understand what I could be missing here.

[Jibba]

I got -4, -107 on the Mansion exchange. They've really impressed me the last couple weeks. Nice analysis.

[Jaguar101]

[ QUOTE ]
Honestly, I don't think matchups even matter here, because Clemson doesn't have a weakness on either side of the ball. They have one of the best defenses in the country, both passing and rushing, their running game is tremendous, and their passing game's very good too. The only thing they do poorly is special teams, which I guess works in VT's favor, but if they keep scoring TDs, VT can only score one point at a time.

The only thing that really worries me here is the line move. It seems like every time I have a POTW where the line moves dramatically in my favor, it turns out to be a big loser. Florida State vs. Troy screwed me over big time as did Oregon vs. Washington State last week. I'm thinking it's just the "big name at home should play a close game" thing, because Va. Tech looks downright terrible this year. GT and BC were the only Top 40 teams they played this year, and they lost to BC 22-3 and trailed GT 38-13 in the fourth quarter. I really don't understand what I could be missing here.

[/ QUOTE ]

zoiks! VT is my play of the week. Clemson = Let down game on the road!

Thursday Night at VT on espn? ill take the home underdog

[droopy0021]

[quote}
zoiks! VT is my play of the week. Clemson = Let down game on the road!

Thursday Night at VT on espn? ill take the home underdog

[/ QUOTE ]

Let down is potentially a concern after a big win at home, homecoming, ESPN gameday, etc. I feel those issues are more than counteracted by reasons listed above. The line is fairly low at 4 so I'm not asking for a 3 TD win. I like constants of defense & running game to help in hostile environments or when things might not be going great.

[iggymcfly]

[ QUOTE ]

zoiks! VT is my play of the week. Clemson = Let down game on the road!

Thursday Night at VT on espn? ill take the home underdog

[/ QUOTE ]

Good, this is exactly the kind of analysis I was hoping for from the VT backers. If this is all I have to fade, I'm golden.

[rjp]

The real question: Is Clemson spending more time getting ass or practicing this week after the huge win?

[iggymcfly]

Clemson's not much for letdowns. They followed their big win over #9 (at the time) Florida State with a 52-7 pasting of North Carolina, and the week after their big comeback against Wake, they beat Temple 63-9. If there's one team I'm not worried about suffering a letdown in this situation, it's Clemson.

[rjp]

Expectations have changed, though. Clemson is on top of the world now.

[rush66]

I agree with both of you. I have the line at -7 and I really feel like that is too low. I do however see the potential for a letdown here. Especially with a VT team that everyone is writing off. VT has the talent they are just missing something else and a win here could propel them back to what they should have been. I still think clemson covers however.