100 stars hu SnG

[Heir_Aparent]

eff stacks 1500 each

blinds 15/30, opponent seems decent, predictable. prob views me as aggro (tho not really real relevant for hand imo)

hes button raises to 90, i have 88 in BB i call.

flop As 7S 5x i check he beats 100ish i call.

turn 8x, i lead 333 (like?) he thinks and calls.

river 6. ugh.

but i push 1k into 1k pot

thoughts? is a push +EV? i cant see him folding anything really even just a bare ace will prob call

[Fliff]

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i cant see him folding anything really even just a bare ace will prob call

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If this is true, then this is has to be +EV

[hra146]

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i cant see him folding anything really even just a bare ace will prob call

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is true, then this is has to be +EV

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I cant see why this would be right if hes "decent" but if true its +EV.

[Envyme_Mvp]

I like your line a lot, though folding an ace is easier because of the river. I think i put in a half- 3/4 psb instead

[Heir_Aparent]

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i cant see him folding anything really even just a bare ace will prob call

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If this is true, then this is has to be +EV

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i phrased that sort of poorly. the way he seemed to be playing combined with how i thought he percieved me, he MIGHT call with A10-AK. im confident he is confused by my line/general agression which is why i assert that he may not fold a good ace here.

everything else is a 2 pair hand for him which i am pretty sure he never folds.


hypothetical here- lets say he folds all aces that arent two pair, and even hands like 86. is push bad then?

[HokieGreg]

noone is in favor of a 3bet preflop???

[ChicagoRy]

Looks fairly bad to shove if he's not calling a strong A IMO here.

No 3-bet PF is ok but I think these are good stacks w the blinds to 3-bet it. With like 1150-1250 effective stacks it's a bit trickier without good reads.

As played and considering that you feel he's predictable, what do you think he does on the river with different hands?

The answer to that question should really tell you what to do here, but I don't think a shove is good unless he calls with a few one pair aces.

[skanberg]

Good lead on turn, building pot, allowing villain to play for the stack if he raises the drawheavy board with a made hand.

I dont like the river push, loss of value. Of course, if you play him often its ok to mix it up a bit.
The chance of villain having two pair is very small though, as I think he would have raised turn on this board with two pair.

[qdmcg]

[ QUOTE ]
Looks fairly bad to shove if he's not calling a strong A IMO here.

No 3-bet PF is ok but I think these are good stacks w the blinds to 3-bet it. With like 1150-1250 effective stacks it's a bit trickier without good reads.

As played and considering that you feel he's predictable, what do you think he does on the river with different hands?

The answer to that question should really tell you what to do here, but I don't think a shove is good unless he calls with a few one pair aces.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is heir on roomies account. i think theres a good chance he does not fold any of the small two pair he can have(for as many str8s that got there, there is just as many 1 pair+ draw hands that hit two pair on riv)

theres also smaller sets , aces up that didnt raise turn or that got there on riv.

not saying all of these are of equal likelihood, but they are certainly within his range.

what are we most afraid of? aces that made a str8? this is certainly possible.

i dunno, i think its closer than i originally thought, but still slightly +EV b/c of my image. he will prob not bet very many worse hands if checked to on river, likely just the best two pairs.

also, because i lead turn(when it was just a 3 str8), if he has an AK type hand he might convince himself to call river even tho its a terrible board for his hand.

[rat bat blue]

all this out of line bets in HU generally are very weak,
esp. pot size. The last thing he would put you in is set.

So I'd push and expect the A to call. But you did not post the sharkscope stats on your enemy...