stars 100, KK btn, 4 bet pot against a reg Tag

[pineapple888]

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ok ill phrase this another way. if vils range is exactly 99-JJ

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[Bulletproof Monk]

ok so lets give him some kind of categorised range...

99 (at 80% disc), TT, JJ

AK (95% disc), AQs, QQ (95% disc), AA (25% disc)

is that a decent range to begin?

[Bulletproof Monk]

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ok ill phrase this another way. if vils range is exactly 99-JJ

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im trying to clarify that there is a part of vils range that a flop bluff plays better than a check behind

[Bulletproof Monk]

also if it isnt obvious the % are for the amount left, not the amount discounted by

[pineapple888]

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also if it isnt obvious the % are for the amount left, not the amount discounted by

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[Bulletproof Monk]

Ok so we can split the range in to 2 categories:

Category A [99 (at 80% disc), TT, JJ, random air such as 56s]

On this flop we have 6 combos of each, and will add in 2 combos for air

99 is disc because it will often not 3bet/call a 4bet

6*.8 + 6 + 6 = 18.8 total combos.

Category B [AK (95% disc), AQs, QQ (95% disc), AA (25% disc), random Ax such as AQo and AJs]

On this flop we have 6 combos of AK, 2 combos of AQs, 3 combos of QQ and 3 combos of AA, and will add in 1.5 combos for random Ax

AK and QQ are slightly disc because there is a small chance they reraise preflop. AA is disc heavily because it will usually reraise preflop.

6*.95 + 2 + 3*.95 + 3*.25 + 1.5 = ~4.8 total combos.


So, we can say his weighted range has ~80% in category A and ~20% in category B

When we bluff the flop against category A hands (assuming he folds), we pick up the pot. Of course by not bluffing the pot we cant be sure he wont just check down a lot of his hands, particularly JJ. So I guess we need to find the difference between the 2 plays.

Bluff = +$91 (pick up the pot)

Dont bluff = +$66 (our continued equity, i have taken an approximation to make things easier)

Difference by which bluffing is better: $25

So 80% of the time we make a play with +25 ev


Next, when we DO bluff the flop and he has a category B hand, we lose $55.

so 20% of the time we make a play with -55 ev.


Overall ev of bluffing: 25*.8 - 55*.2 = +9


Final considerations are how often he bluffraises us off the hand with a category A, but against a nit this is discounted to irrelevance.

I guess ive convinced myself that the flop bluff is not too bad, feel free to rip holes in this tho.

[Bulletproof Monk]

those saying flop check behind is standard please identify the point of contention in the above because im clearly in the minority

[wdead]

LOL monk why are you trying to "bluff" villain off of hands you are already beating. Just check alot and see what he does. Prob fold if he bets ever, unless you think he bluffs alot, then call and make money. Simple.

[Bulletproof Monk]

i believe we have a higher ev of bluffing because against a reasonably nitty opponent by checking this flop we seem to often induce a bluff we cant call from 99 type hands

[Jamsym]

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i believe we have a higher ev of bluffing because against a reasonably nitty opponent by checking this flop we seem to often induce a bluff we cant call from 99 type hands

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I think you're overestimating the amount of hands the villain could have here.

Op said hes a decent reg. He has no odds to call for set value on hands like 99-JJ and he has to figure he's behind. I think you can narrow villains range right down to QQ-AA and AK.