2 pair river call?

[StellarWind]

I think this would be a terrible fold.

A mere 40 hands worth of stats and no reads? We have no idea how Villain plays postflop. That should be a strong warning against making fancy folds in 11.5 BB pots.

Look at the flop that he bet:

Flush draw - bust
Three OESDs - all bust
Six gutshots with possible backdoor flushes - all bust
Top pair - you're good
Middle pair - you're good
Small pocket pair - you're good

How about an ace? He could have A8/A7/A3 but most of the time that would raise the turn. He could have A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]x [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] but that's both a potential PFR and a potential turn raise. We also have reasonable reason to believe Button mucked an ace. Conclusion: an ace is certainly possible but it isn't that likely.

Could he have a three? Certainly, but consider the implications of putting him on a three. Anyone who would bet the flop with a three is obviously prone to retarded aggression. But if he's prone to retarded aggression then how can you justify an 11.5-1 fold?

[Saikkonen]

Could we just check-call this river. The 3 is a horrible card for us because now we are counterfeited with all higher pocketpairs and all Ax. They are very likely hands in his prefloprange. But if that is the case he has a funny line by not popping the turn and waiting until the river. And if he was on a missed draw he should fold here and he raises - another inconsistency. When I find inconsistency I have trouble folding a fold.