folding an overpair for one bet on the flop

Coelacanth · #1 04-06-2007, 04:24 PM

Live 40. I think my part in this hand isn't all that interesting, but I'll post the entire hand anyways. Mostly interested in UTG's hypothetical hand. UTG is a former prop and probably one of the best players in the game. As far as I know, he thinks I'm decent as well. Button I think is good, but I can't remember any history with him. Might be a 2p2 guy. Don't know what button and UTG think of each other.

UTG raises, two big super calling station fish call, button 3-bets, I cap K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] out of the small blind, BB folds, rest call. Button has just over 9 SB left at this point.

Flop 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I bet, UTG folds what he later claims to be QQ, no diamond getting an immediate 22.5:1. What do we think of this fold? (For what it's worth, I don't think he was lying about his hand, but just pretend he's actually got what he says here).

Rest of the hand, which isn't all that interesting - button and I cap it 4 ways on the flop, Turn 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], I c/r button and one fish calls, button 2.6 bets all in and we both call, and I check-call the 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on the river when the remaining fish bets into the dry side pot, which I don't give him credit for understanding.

MitchL · #2 04-06-2007, 04:31 PM

I think you need to widen your cap range if this is a 4-bet cap game. I couldnt imagine making this fold regardless of pot odds, but if people are making these kind of folds based on your capping range then you are too predictable.

amulet · #3 04-06-2007, 04:58 PM

unless he is playing very scared money, with this flop even vs all this opponents he didn't fold QQ in a pot this big.

HOWMANY · #4 04-06-2007, 05:07 PM

He's either a liar or a bad player. Probably both. The pot could be half this size and I think the fold would still be horrendous.

bernie · #5 04-06-2007, 05:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
He's either a liar or a bad player. Probably both. The pot could be half this size and I think the fold would still be horrendous.

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends on his read of OP. Some people, the way they bet, especially out of the blinds, you know they have AA or KK in the mitt.

b

MitchL · #6 04-06-2007, 05:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He's either a liar or a bad player. Probably both. The pot could be half this size and I think the fold would still be horrendous.

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends on his read of OP. Some people, the way they bet, especially out of the blinds, you know they have AA or KK in the mitt.

b

[/ QUOTE ]

He should still peel.

bernie · #7 04-06-2007, 05:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He's either a liar or a bad player. Probably both. The pot could be half this size and I think the fold would still be horrendous.

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends on his read of OP. Some people, the way they bet, especially out of the blinds, you know they have AA or KK in the mitt.

b

[/ QUOTE ]

He should still peel.

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Yes, given the pot size. Unless it's raised by the button and 3 bet again by the OP behind you.

I'd usually peel one anyways then fold on the turn. But the point is, people can be that predictable.

b

Coelacanth · #8 04-06-2007, 05:39 PM

Suppose UTG's range for his preflop raise is something like TT+/AQ+/AJs+. I don't know if that's it exactly, but I know that he'll limp with KJs/A9s/88 type hands, so it's not much wider than that. Button's likely got some idea of that range, since I'm pretty sure they've played each other before, so pick something reasonable for his 3-bet. After I cap preflop and then lead, he's not looking too good with QQ and 3 players to act. It's possible I have AdKd, AcKc. Maybe he thinks I could have JJ. But when I lead into a field of calling stations and preflop raisers here, I'm pretty much prepared to cap.

For those who want him to call the flop, would you fold if it comes back to him 3-bet or capped? I'm pretty sure he gets to see the turn for one bet less than 10% of the time here.

Godson · #9 04-06-2007, 05:48 PM

Probably a smart move, but knowing me id raise here almost always and see what happens..

cdlarmore · #10 04-06-2007, 06:53 PM

yea, looks like a peel either way. I surely agree with thoughts of certainty of raisers having AA or KK, I just got done with a session in which nobody at the table ever ever raised unless they had an AA or KK. If someones raising once in 6 buttons, you better be in fear with the QQ...