AA for two cold on the river

[Coelacanth]

I'm the villain in this hand, but I'm interested in comments on hero's line. Hero thinks villain is decent, but hasn't played much with him.

Live 20/40. Hero and Villain have overs buttons that make the game 30/60 when a betting round begins with only those two remaining in the pot.

Tightish, probably straightforward regular opens in HJ, villain 3-bets on the button, hero calls in BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], HJ calls.

Flop 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] HJ bets, villain calls, hero check-raises, both call.

Turn 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Hero bets, both call.

River 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Hero checks, HJ bets, villain raises.

[HOWMANY]

Hero should have capped preflop and he should have bet river. The way it happened I think he should now fold because it seems you had overs+BDFD on flop and got there. Who knows what the regular had, possibly 99-JJ or even 66/88, seems like a live nit would play those hands like this fairly often. He probably has the HJ beat a lot and you very rarely unless you're trying to squeeze him out, which doesn't make much sense. If you magically knew he had AA then maybe you could try to scare him out with JJ, but it's sort of impossible to think he's got AA.

[n.s.]

I don't like Hero's smooth-call PF - with 2 other players, I think you give up too much by just calling. The possibility of forcing out HJ (most likely on the flop) and getting to play 30-60 is just icing on the cake.

Given hero's PF play, I like the flop check-raise and the turn bet.

I hate checking the river here, it looks too much like HJ and/or villain has an overpair that they will call down with, and pulling off a river sexy seems to risky with that board and 2 other players still in.

Given the river check, I think hero has to call 2 cold here - given the reads and the PF action, there's no reason to think that anyone else has an 8. Something AcKc or AcQc is very possible, but by just checking the river, hero has made it really hard to see where he stands and now is forced to call. I think I'd rather bet and fold to a raise than check and fold for 2 cold here (although I'd still probably pay off a raise).

[rafiki]

ya that was either one of the best river cards for you. It may have saved you two bets, assuming you folded. Chances are one of those players didn't need the board to pair to take this one down. Conversely it could just be trip 8's vs flush, in which case you're still 3rd. Easy fold, specially since you're not closing the action here.

[Coelacanth]

I would add that as villain in this hand, I would raise this river with 77 very often given the way the action went. Not that hero necessarily knows that.

[The DaveR]

Hero sucks.