good river bluff or suicide?

[Jewrilla]

hero playing standard tag. villian is 26/2 over 42 hands 2.67 AF never seen him get outta line. however his went to showdown is 1/12 and win at showdown 100% obv. Villian used up almost all time and bank on the turn. no flush draws out.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $7
BB: $34.10
Hero (UTG): $23.95
CO: $30.80
BTN: $24.65

Pre-Flop: J T dealt to Hero (UTG)
Hero raises to $0.85, 3 folds, BB calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.80) 5 J A (2 Players)
BB bets $0.75, Hero calls $0.75

Turn: ($3.30) 3 (2 Players)
BB bets $2, Hero raises to $6.75, BB calls $4.75

River: ($16.80) 4 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $15.60 and is All-In

[well named]

42 hands isn't a very large sample, I'm not sure his low WTSD% quite justifies this play.

My problem is the only hand that I can imagine you having that plays this way is maybe A2. It's hard to believe you raised preflop and called the flop with 24 or 26 or 67. Normally a line like this is pretty polarized between very good hands and bluffs, not decent made hands like AK or AQ. So since the very good hands seem unlikely given the action, you're more likely to be bluffing, and if he's good he could realize this and call with any decent ace.

Or, he could be weak-tight and bad and fold like he has before. I'm just not sure this line is believable enough to justify the risk.

[herro_radies]

if your plan was to get him out of the pot should have 3 bet the flop instead.

[Jewrilla]

so AK/AQ is never in my range here? if i did have AK I might wait till the turn to raise since he is donking into me. that way I can fold to a turn push.

[Micro Donk]

youre raising AK/AQ on the flop right?

[well named]

I wouldn't say it's never in your range, just that this line is suspicious enough I expect you'll get looked up a lot by Ax hands both by the usual calling stations as well as by thinking players, although with this particular player it may have a shot at working.

This probably also depends a fair amount on what your image is, and how aggro you have been postflop.

[Jewrilla]

time to go off on a tangent....the board isn't very draw heavy besides a gutshot. so let's say i did have AK, would it be abs neccasary to raise the flop? i think it's kinda wa/wb if he has 3 or 5 outs. a rs might fold out A-10,A-Q
and put me in a tuff spot if AQ or air wants to 3-bet me.
Is this a big leak to not always raise this flop against str8 foward players? against loose players obv raise is standard...


result: villian folded. maybe next time I'll rs flop, b/f turn. thanks guys

[well named]

[ QUOTE ]
Is this a big leak to not always raise this flop against str8 foward players?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a good question, and it brings to mind that I have a little cognitive dissonance here. Perhaps a little of Pokey's weak-tight syndrome. I'd love to get some other perspectives.

I don't think in this case if you had AK it wouldn't be bad to just call the flop, but I think if you then raised the turn and got called you should probably be checking behind the river most of the time because you don't expect to get a lot of value from worse hands by betting, and from his action he can have two pair quite often. That said, against players I have seen call down relatively light, or if I have been caught bluffing recently, I might shove the river with AK here as played, but it would be read-based, and fairly high variance.

On the other hand, if that's true, than you probably would expect your river bluff in the hand as played to fold out Ax relatively often, but you're still worried that given the interest he has shown on the turn he can easily have two pair.

It's also fairly villain dependant. Against this guy, who hasn't gotten out of line too much, and doesn't get to showdown too much, I am worried with both AK and TJ on the river just because he has shown a fair amount of strength by betting the flop and turn and calling a raise. A river shove against him is probably better as a bluff than a value bet with AK but risky in either case. Against a more standard calling station I would never try this as a bluff but would do this with AK, although normally I'm raising the flop with AK against both villains.

Hopefully i'm not too muddled.