***uNL Microbrew Thread*** NOV 2007 (ot)

[Bantam222]

are you guys talking about micro winrates or higher stakes?

[corsakh]

50nl - 100nl

[ICMoney]

About sample sizes and ptbb/100:

It's hard to know what someone's true win rate is because the players do not put in 300k hands at 50nl, 100nl or w/e before moving up.

Someone might crush 50nl for 6pt over 25k hands, repeat at 100nl and then grind out 200nl for 2.5pt/100 until he has the roll/upswing to move up.

Check out the variance spreadsheet (link?). It's pretty sick. It generates 200k hand graphs and every time you refresh the sheet it gives you a new graph. Some of the graphs look like complete opposites of one another.

You often hear that a decent player should be making 5ptbb/100 or something but this just doesn't happen anymore.

[corsakh]

5ptbb is certainly sustainable, not sure about crazy numbers like 10+ ptbb.

[dlorc]

I think some of the higher figures floating around might be sustainable if the rake wasnt gross @ micros.

[Wilpro]

ptbb/100 is going to be misleading to how well a player can beat a level, because someone who is crushing, plays more tables, which decreases their ptbb/100 but increases their ptbb/hour winrate.

[ICMoney]

I just remembered this phrase:

Everyone is promoted to his level of ignorance.

Usually used in a corporate setting - get promoted until you can barely do your job and don't have the skill set to move up in the organization.

Think the same thing goes on in the poker world.


I have a bunch of nl100 hands that I haven't loaded into my db and I would be very surprised if more than .5% sustained a ptbb/100 of 5+ over anything resembling a decent sample size.

[ICMoney]

[ QUOTE ]
ptbb/100 is going to be misleading to how well a player can beat a level, because someone who is crushing, plays more tables, which decreases their ptbb/100 but increases their ptbb/hour winrate.

[/ QUOTE ]

Point well taken.

Unless you get a complete datamine, you would never really know what that player's MTT ratio is.

For players with a high number of hands I would think 6.5 would be a fair MTT ratio.

4-tabling at 5pt is the same as 6.5 tabling at 3.1pt.*

*Excluding rakeback.

[Mr_Pathetic]

I think it kind of works like uNL anything 5-6 and up is good. At SSNL I think anywhere from 4 and up is good. At MSNL I think anywhere from 1-4 is good with anything over 4 as godly. I think at HSNL anything over 1 is probably good and anything over much more then that is gold. But like most ppl said some people will not spend enough time at a given level to find their real winrate. I have played 26k hands of NL25 now and my winrate is nowhere near where I think it would be b/c I have been in a nasty long stretch of coolers, bad beats, not getting paid off when I should especially with my aggro self, and in general just not playing well.

I datamined quite a bit of NL1000 and most folks were in the 1-3 range with a few above 4+. Someone posted a shot of where they played 57,000 hands of NL1000 on FTP for 4.79 PTBB. I datamined another player who plays HSNL for over 60,000 hands and he was at 4.09 playing limits from NL2000-NL40000 (not aba).

[ICMoney]

Oh yeah, (my job and) all these posts is prob why I've played <4k hands this month.