50nl river bluff

[george w]

this was my first orbit.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
4 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: $49.25
Button: $59.15
SB: $110.45
BB: $52.80

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is UTG with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2</font>, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds.

4 handed. i don't think you can argue with pf.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($4.5, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $17</font>, SB calls.

villain led a little bit over pot which is a bet that looks like it doesn't want to be called, so i raised. he called and i put him on a flush draw and small chance of aq. most players on ftp aren't calling with anything else here.

Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($38.5, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

flush gets there and aq (even smaller chance now) so i'm pretty much giving up here

River: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($38.5, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $2.5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises all-in $30.25</font>

pretty bad card for a flush. he makes a weird bet. i'm nearly discounting aq at this point. i thought that maybe he was trying to induce a raise but i can't really put him on a boat here and decided he was just scared and most flushes are going to have a hard time calling an all in so i push.

[jjigglers]

PF is whatever of course. Flop is read dependent, and all you have is his bet size. Big bet sometimes means I don't want you to call, but sometimes it doesn't.

The river bluff is Villain dependent (as are most bluffs), slightly more decent because of the river Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I don't think he can call the river without a T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or better, but what else can he have? With the board pairing, you're behind a lot, and I think he's only folding small flushes and 34, which probably constitute a small part of his range.

I wouldn't make the bluff, but congrats if you did and it worked. Bluffing without reads other than a bet size is usually -EV FWIW.