TPTK facing a min raise and a strong turn bet

[forshure]

[ QUOTE ]
You are only ahead of a flush draw. Are you willing to back up your stack with a pair of Jacks and ace kicker? Now if you call, what are you thinking? A call only has two purposes, either you are trapping your opponent (you think your hand is better and want him to put him more money in future streets), or you are drawing to win.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your whole post is wrong, but this is on another level of wrong. I am never folding here looking at this board. I probably call most of the time but if i feel villan will pay me off w/ a worse J I prob cram here. He is prob raising w/ air on the flop here far far far more often then he is raising w/ any hand that beats us.

edit: reads and stacks sizes would be nice, as if he is shorter stacked I def push here as well. If he is more decent and we are playing with norm or deep eff stacks I call as well.

[forshure]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd call but fold to alot of river bets. But a fold isn't bad.

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Folding this hand on this board against an unknown and about 95% of the people in SSNL is throwning away money.

[Albert Moulton]

[ QUOTE ]
NL 100

Stack sizes = 130

Hero raises in middle position with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

All fold, till villian calls in the big blind.

Flop comes 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Vilian checks, I bet 6, villian raises to 12. I call.

Turn comes 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Villian bets 28 into a 32 dollar pot. Fold right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Right.

If he's really tight, as you say, then he has KK/QQ/JJ/AJ/22, and that's about it. I don't see a tight player calling a pfr from the BB with KJ/QJ/A2s/K2s. I don't see a tight villain overplaying a hand like AcQc/AcKc OOP, either, although that is a possibility if villain is tight preflop but very aggressive post flop. I also don't see why villain would play an underpair like TT/99/88/77 this way on the flop, unless he was trying to snap off a cb from you and lucked out on the turn with a set of 9s.

Check/min-raise on the flop + potish-sized lead on the turn is usually a set, or in this case a boat w/ JJ as the most likely hand.

I think, given the reads, folding is ok.

[Albert Moulton]

[ QUOTE ]
Call. What are you beat by?

He's unlikely to have a 2, and even more unlikely to have JJ. This is a flush draw or a weaker jack most of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

A lot of tight players will call QQ/KK/AA OOP like this to "trap." I think that is a terrible play, but certainly within the range of tight/passive preflop villain. They are more likely than "KJ/QJ" if the OP read is accurate.

[Albert Moulton]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd call but fold to alot of river bets. But a fold isn't bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding this hand on this board against an unknown and about 95% of the people in SSNL is throwning away money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Despite my posts so far saying folding is OK, I agree with both of the statements, above. As a default, I'd probably call the turn, and reevaluate on the river - willing to dump there is another big bet comes and I have no reason to suspect a missed club draw (i.e. I've seen this line on draws vs this villain before).

The OP, however, seems to have a "read" on villain. And given that read, this does seem to be one of those 5% times folding might be ok.

[keikiwai]

[ QUOTE ]
They are more likely than "KJ/QJ" if the OP read is accurate.

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is this the read you're talking about:

[ QUOTE ]
Stack sizes = 130


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seriously, what read?

[forshure]

OP posted no reads, assume unknown

[bilbo-san]

[ QUOTE ]
Basically what the above said is: "I call, call and call. I don't know what you have and I don't know if I can win. But I call and hope to collect money most of the time."

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Wow, are you good at either misrepresenting or misunderstanding what he actually said.

[jjigglers]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd call but fold to a lot of river bets. But a fold isn't bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Paul Thomson]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Basically what the above said is: "I call, call and call. I don't know what you have and I don't know if I can win. But I call and hope to collect money most of the time."

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, are you good at either misrepresenting or misunderstanding what he actually said.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bilbo -

What do you think about the hand, though. Do you call?

And if you call, how big of a bet are you willing to call on the river. If the villain bets big on the river, it's either the nuts or he 3-barrelled with a minicheck-raise on the flop (which i've seen before).

I'd probably call somewhere upto a half bet on river, depending on a few timing tells and what not.

I understand what the poster says about their not many hands the villain could have that beats us on this board.

PREFLOP ACTION:
Most villains will reraise QQ & KK preflop. Some villains might call with AA, but I think that's less likely than a reraise. There's only one way to make JJ. Villain almost surely doesn't have a 2, unless it's the random A2.

However JT and JA are probably likely in his hand range.

So a flush draw does make a large portion of the villains hand. Of course we don't recommend check-raising the flop and leading big on the turn, but it's a ballsy semibluff from the villain. For the villain to do this with JT, he have to be pretty bad. To do it with JA, not so bad.

However, if he leads big on most rivers, I think we have to be behind quite a bit of the time. Sure he could be on air, but he'd need huge balls. I think we could be splitting on the river a decent % of the time.