OK, so I don't play many limped pots. BB Special.

[bilbo-san]

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I think a FD is part of his range; however, I dont think it tends to be as large as you think, unless you have a specific read on him. I also think that he may just check behind w/ a flush draw. So the combination of times you have a pair check behind and also the times the FD checks behind makes leading better imo. I dont remember reading in op if you had him noted as bets when checks to but that obv makes it easy. Also if I checked here it is def w/ intention of c/ring.

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The fact that you think a FD checks behind is irrelevant because it's never calling a bet. Versus a flush draw, checking is better than betting (assuming you won't fold when he bets) unless you have some maniacal read that he'll always raise a lead but never bluff if you check (sic).

Whether or not a made hand checks is another question. But not many made hands are calling a bet either! The board is scary as hell!

I think that his bet is a bluff or some hand like two pair that is hoping I have a good Ace and can't fold. No one with one pair is betting here, and they are rarely calling a bet either.

Assign a range of hands for Villain. Then tell me how often those hands call a $40 bet.

[bilbo-san]

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All,

Most of you seem to be forgetting that a whiffed flush draw is a huge part of his range -- he bet $2 into a $6 pot on the flop and then just called the turn. Betting is pretty bad against a busted draw.

I checked to induce a bluff, but once he bet big, I thought that sets, 2pair, and other hands might be in his range, and pushed (effectively).

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I hear ya. I knew what your thinking was. But I think most sets and 2pair hands reraise the flop or turn. So I think his range is more of missed flush draw or weak made hand whether it's an Ace or something else.

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As I said before, the weak made hands and Aces aren't calling $40 very often. So Villain doesn't need to bluff often for checking to have higher EV.

[keikiwai]

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I think a FD is part of his range; however, I dont think it tends to be as large as you think, unless you have a specific read on him. I also think that he may just check behind w/ a flush draw. So the combination of times you have a pair check behind and also the times the FD checks behind makes leading better imo. I dont remember reading in op if you had him noted as bets when checks to but that obv makes it easy. Also if I checked here it is def w/ intention of c/ring.

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The fact that you think a FD checks behind is irrelevant because it's never calling a bet. Versus a flush draw, checking is better than betting (assuming you won't fold when he bets) unless you have some maniacal read that he'll always raise a lead but never bluff if you check (sic).

Whether or not a made hand checks is another question. But not many made hands are calling a bet either! The board is scary as hell!

I think that his bet is a bluff or some hand like two pair that is hoping I have a good Ace and can't fold. No one with one pair is betting here, and they are rarely calling a bet either.

Assign a range of hands for Villain. Then tell me how often those hands call a $40 bet.

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it's not the $40 that's in question, it's what part of his range calls the $80 on top....

i don't know, but he's not calling w/ much

[Paul Thomson]

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All,

Most of you seem to be forgetting that a whiffed flush draw is a huge part of his range -- he bet $2 into a $6 pot on the flop and then just called the turn. Betting is pretty bad against a busted draw.

I checked to induce a bluff, but once he bet big, I thought that sets, 2pair, and other hands might be in his range, and pushed (effectively).

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I hear ya. I knew what your thinking was. But I think most sets and 2pair hands reraise the flop or turn. So I think his range is more of missed flush draw or weak made hand whether it's an Ace or something else.

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As I said before, the weak made hands and Aces aren't calling $40 very often. So Villain doesn't need to bluff often for checking to have higher EV.

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I don't think I'd bet 40. I'd bet closer to half the pot.

And I don't think a flush draw bets 40 much either. But then again this guy did, so who knows. I think most flush draws will bet closer to around half the pot as well.

However, I think that weak made hands call the river alot more than missed flush draws bet it.

[forshure]

I didnt say it right. I guess I think his range is much wider then you and you think that a FD is prob like 80% of his range or something. I think his range is much wider. I just meant it that when you check to induce from a FD you are obv missing value from pairs that are checking behind, so if he has a FD I would want to know that he bets his FD a large portion of the time for me to give up that value from pairs. If he is one to check behind w/ his whiffed draws and we can not really extract anymore money this part of his range then I think leading v his pairs is far better. I think it is fairly read dependant, as if he is not one to call a river bet light here then I think inducing is better. However, if he is one to check behind pairs/missed FDs then you definately need to bet. And if he bets when checked to, I think a c/r is quite good. I lead in general here as I think you still get paid off by a lot of As.

[jjigglers]

Flop C/R is ugly, bloating pot OOP is silly with marginal holdings is silly IMO.

Turn is obviously standard, based on flop and hand play.

River C/R is good, missed FD, value betting deuce, etc. For all the people who say what will he call with, he's calling with a deuce always, and other random stuff sometimes. OP has the 2nd nuts for christ sake.

[keikiwai]

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Flop C/R is ugly, bloating pot OOP is silly with marginal holdings is silly IMO.

Turn is obviously standard, based on flop and hand play.

River C/R is good, missed FD, value betting deuce, etc. For all the people who say what will he call with, he's calling with a deuce always, and other random stuff sometimes. OP has the 2nd nuts for christ sake.

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doh! didn't see the deuce bigalo! good point about getting value from the gigalo...

[Paul Thomson]

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Flop C/R is ugly, bloating pot OOP is silly with marginal holdings is silly IMO.

Turn is obviously standard, based on flop and hand play.

River C/R is good, missed FD, value betting deuce, etc. For all the people who say what will he call with, he's calling with a deuce always, and other random stuff sometimes. OP has the 2nd nuts for christ sake.

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doh! didn't see the deuce bigalo! good point about getting value from the gigalo...

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not too many hands have a deuce on the river given previous action.

[orange]

Meh, I don't really like c/r-ing this flop, but I can see why you did it. I generally call flop and lead turn.

I think your river play is pretty sexy. Missed clubs will bet here, as will 2pairs/sets/etc. Your hand is really disguised.

[Paul Thomson]

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Meh, I don't really like c/r-ing this flop, but I can see why you did it. I generally call flop and lead turn.

I think your river play is pretty sexy. Missed clubs will bet here, as will 2pairs/sets/etc. Your hand is really disguised.

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do you think 2pairs and sets raise the turn?