Party 50nl: turned trips, facing heat

boardertj · #1 10-25-2007, 08:29 PM

Villian is 16/11/2 over 250 hands

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Party Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($129.87)
MP ($16)
Hero ($51.75)
Button ($69.32)
SB ($49.50)
BB ($51.47)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises to $2, 1 fold, SB calls $1.75, 1 fold.

Flop: ($4.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3, SB calls $3.

Turn: ($10.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $7, SB raises to $22.5, hero ?

Push or fold?

NL Newbie · #2 10-25-2007, 08:41 PM

Who actually thinks villan would slowplay a set on this board?

I think he's got AQ alot here, then sometimes a set, and like QJs/QTs.

Since its CO vs SB i may go broke here.Tough one, im gonna go away and think about this.

AFCBeer · #3 10-25-2007, 08:48 PM

This is really tough. I have a stat on my HUD for "calls preflop raise." This would be useful because if it is low then I'm not sure he calls PF with QJs/QTs OOP.

boardertj · #4 10-26-2007, 06:25 AM

Any other thoughts?

kroeliewoelie · #5 10-26-2007, 06:54 AM

You have made it quite clear that you have the Q and villain is decent. At worst he has QJ here.

Against a range AQ,KQ,QJ,22,88 you have 40% equity. Leaving out QJ makes that 28%. So I guess against this player this is a fold.

Shattered · #6 10-26-2007, 07:05 AM

I can't see a reasonable hand that you beat, really. Basic hand reading says you have to fold: You've just bet three streets representing exactly what your hand is and a none-too-aggressive player came over the top. Besides, this isn't a bad board to slow play a set into an aggro player and once the board paired he could afford to check again.

cashstrapped · #7 10-26-2007, 07:41 AM

This is tricky, sat here i think its a fold, but at the table im not sure if id be able to let this go

Lostit · #8 10-26-2007, 08:28 AM

I gotta fold here. Against a donk I push, but against this villain, I think its 22 or 88 at least 2/3's of the time. He called your raise OOP preflop, which many times can be a small to middle pocket pair. I think AQ might even 3-bet preflop in that spot, so thats why I discount that a bit.

If he did hit his set, a check/call, check/raise line is usually a monster, and a commonly used line.

I gotta fold.