Checkup: J8s from the BB

[numbnuts007]

I like the river check to try and induce a bluff. I think most of the time you're up against a busted spade draw that won't call a river bet anyway. I think you're more likely to be bluffed at by a high card than you are to be called by someone with as little as a high card, especially if that card is a spade. I like the play.

[sebastien]

why bet the flop and not check/raise it??
you afraid to give a free card??
and what do you do if you bet and him raise behind you??

[jrz1972]

Bet the river. Villain will probably include a busted flush draw as part of Hero's range, and is going to be more inclined to call with AK/AQ/AJ/AT than usual. He probably won't bet those hands himself since we're rarely folding anything he's losing to.

[Jiggymike]

[ QUOTE ]
I like the river check to try and induce a bluff. I think most of the time you're up against a busted spade draw that won't call a river bet anyway. I think you're more likely to be bluffed at by a high card than you are to be called by someone with as little as a high card, especially if that card is a spade. I like the play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Small stakes players bet busted flushes all the time here with the K or even Q of spades, hoping that you were drawing at the same thing. Since you have a fairly strong hand on this board, you should check and let him bet, if you had a weaker hand you should bet yourself to try to take it down. I defintely like the c/c line here, I think you will make more bets by inducing a bluff than betting and getting called by missed flush draws.

[James.]

i would bet. if the board wasn't paired, 4 to a straight, and a 3flush(i.e. scary as hell)i would like the check to try to induce. as is, i think AK or AQ or whatever will enjoy a freeshowdown more often than fire on the end.

[Haupt_234]

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I think ace high calls this river often enough to make value betting > check/calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, this was what I was wondering...

Actually, my normal line has always been to bet the rivers in these situations but I tried something different here and felt like it might work more.

Haupt_234

[James.]

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[ QUOTE ]

I think ace high calls this river often enough to make value betting > check/calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, this was what I was wondering...

Actually, my normal line has always been to bet the rivers in these situations but I tried something different here and felt like it might work more.

Haupt_234

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i think with certain reads checking is better. it's the texture of the board and what it would look like to an unknown that worries me here. you never know, once in a blue moon he might fold 9x9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or something....hahaha(yeah, right).

[Haupt_234]

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i think with certain reads checking is better. it's the texture of the board and what it would look like to an unknown that worries me here. you never know, once in a blue moon he might fold 9x9 or something....hahaha(yeah, right).

[/ QUOTE ]

*Thinking outloud*

Well, I think his hand is pretty obviously a high spade draw by his play thus far (although I don't have a read on him so its definitely not 100%).

Therefore, a river check is only good if I think he will bet with a hand that would otherwise fold if I bet 51% of the time (or, add in the % that he folds a better hand like 99 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], although I doubt this % is real high).

So, I think my math/thinking is correct in this hand but I am just unsure about what to think of an unknown (or even a slightly known, for that matter) villain's river tendencies.

And it seems like the consensus is to bet since he is unknown and we for sure can't put him on a high [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or rule out the possibility of him calling with Ax.

Haupt_234

[tangled]

Checking the river is the fancier play.
Betting the river is the more sensible play.

What busted draws that raised or cold called 2 bets preflop would not be good enough to showdown against another busted draw. Not many, so you probably won't get that bluff on the river anyways, because they will not be sure they need to bluff.

But even if they think that the only way to win the hand is to bluff doesn't mean that they will still pull the trigger. If they believe that you will call most of the time, then they might just give up and check behind.

As to Ak or other big aces being induced to value bet the river: If they are in that frame of mind, then wouldn't they also be likely to call a river bet. I don't see what you gain unless you plan a c/r, and don't think you are.

A check does protect against a raise by a slowplayed, or river-made, big hand, but that isn't likely with the preflop action, post flop betting, and board cards.

There is value to inducing a bluff here, but it is much less value than just betting out.

I think the times to induce a bluff on the river are mostly when your hand is good enough in comparison to check/raise, or when you want to get in one more bet on a scarry board, but want to protect against being raised by a big hand.

[Jiggymike]

I may be biased from playing mostly 6 max but I highly recommend people try the c/c here against players from fish - pretty good here. Without substantial evidence,I would say a decent amount of my profit (uhhh when I was a winning player and not a tournament jockey) came from inducing bluffs on hands like this. Here is my philosophy:

Villian's hand REEKS of 2 unimproved over cards with a spade , next most likely being a pp higher than the board with a spade like 99 or TT. A big pair is also possible but unlikely unless he is quite passive. You have shown that you have at least a pair, maybe 2 pair or a small flush OR a flush draw yourself. When you bet on the river, he will probably call with a higher pp (TT, maybe JJ if passive, anythign else he would raise again somewhere we'll say), an unlikely better 8 but will almost definitely fold any high cards besides AK. However if you check, he will probably check behind a better 8, possible a 9, TT or MAYBE JJ (I wouldn't count on that). Yet if he has something like QJ unimproved with a spade, he might take a shot at the pot whereas he will NEVER call with this hand. By betting, you let him call with better hands that me might've checked whereas by checking he migh bet hands he would have folded. When you check the river, he might think "OK, this guy had a flush draw so I'm going to bet and try to take it"; remember most of these players don't read hands. Even if you were reading hands, you might Hero on a missed flush draw. However, if you were on a flush draw your best play would be to bet because you basically have no chance of winning if he checks or bets. This topic is covered in TOP and I constantly apply it to this type of situation. For instance, lets say you were betting a flush draw with As and an unpaired low card. If you pair your low card on the river, you should no longer bet because you would were going to bluff on the river with just your A high, now that you have an actual hand you should not value bet it but call a bet instead. I am not sure how much this works at full ring but I know for sure that it is a money move in 6 max. Please correct me if I am egregious.

EDIT: I didn't even factor in a possible c/r on the river but this player will likely only do this with the nut flush.