Big flush w/Paired board

Hair_of_the_Dog · #1 10-03-2007, 01:49 PM

Live 3/6 Laggy (75% preflop raise & 20% raise/re-raise) table with an average of 5-6 seeing the flop

SB and BB are both new to the table and I've never seen them before. The have played 2-3 orbits and have played fairly tight (pucker factor 6 on a scale of 1-10 where 10 is water tight) for this table. They seem to know each other and have similar playing styles.

Hero on the button with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

6 callers preflop
Flop 6sb [4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]
Checked to MP who bets
HJ calls
Hero calls
1 other caller
Everone else folds

Turn 5bb [4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]
Early player bets
MP raise
HJ 3bet
Hero Cap
Early player folds
MP calls
HJ calls

River 19bb [4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]]
MP checks
HJ checks
Hero ?

jesse8888 · #2 10-03-2007, 01:51 PM

Bet, and I don't think it's close.

Edit: Ok, it might be close, but I think you have to bet here. Their raise and re-raise seemed to scream "I , too, desired that third heart". I don't think you'll get check-raised, and I think you're ahead of their ranges.

fishyak · #3 10-03-2007, 02:29 PM

1) Raise the flop. You missed some equity action there. And that would have given you more info on this river.
2) I see the river bet as a much closer decision. Betting might not even get you a call and if you are wrong, you'll have to call a c/r on a pot this big. Are you ahead of both players 1/2 - 2/3's of the time? H/U, I bet. Against two relative unknowns, I'll check this one.

youlosepork · #4 10-03-2007, 02:39 PM

call turn for bigger pot

NoSetNoBet · #5 10-03-2007, 03:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
call turn for bigger pot

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lol, no.

KitCloudkicker · #6 10-03-2007, 03:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
call turn for bigger pot

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wtf?

jesse8888 · #7 10-03-2007, 03:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
call turn for bigger pot

[/ QUOTE ]

wtf?

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seriously...i think this comment might derail the thread if we don't just forget about it.

jesse8888 · #8 10-03-2007, 03:55 PM

I'm ok with the flop call, since there are 3 players left to act and only 2 have put in money yet. Were it the other way around (3 in and 2 left) I'd venture a raise. This line also leaves open the possibility of one of the early checkers unleashing a check/raise.

The turn raise is standard.

Do you really think those players are checking boats? It's pretty hard for me to believe. Again, I'd bet the river.

Hyperrrprank · #9 10-03-2007, 04:14 PM

Bet the river. It looks like HJ hit a smaller flush since he woke up on the turn. MP could have a boat, but once he checks the river the chance he doesn't goes up enough to extract some value.

(Quick math - If he always checks without the boat, and goes for a checkraise a full 50% of the time here that would mean there is a 75% chance he doesn't have it after he checks. The 50% is a total random guess, base your assumption on his prior behavior. With the 50% c/r guess, you will lose 2 bets 1 time and win 1 bet 3 times if he always calls)

jesse8888 · #10 10-03-2007, 04:44 PM

I honestly don't think you even get check/raised here by some of the boats. Like...is 44 going to check/raise you? He really might just call, either because he's afraid of kings full or because he wants one more bet from the player left to act.