55 flops a set in raised pot.. turn spot

[Fiksdal]

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $50.00
BB: $11.20
Hero (UTG): $72.15
MP: $25.05
CO: $25.25
BTN: $41.90

Reads: <font color="blue">Villain is certainly donkish, 30/8/3 over 78 hands.

He has been folding to cbets 89%, calling 11% and never raising them.

I have been running 28/26/oo over 46 hands at this table. I have won a bit of money, and most of it is just from taking down blinds and winning flop pots with cbets, double barreling scary turn cards, etc. Also some value bets that got called. Mostly rather small pots though.

Villain is BB when I am CO, so obviously I have attempted to steal his blind several times, often along with MP or UTG limping.</font>

Preflop: Hero is dealt 5 5 (6 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $2.00</font>, 2 folds, BTN calls $2.00, 2 folds

Flop: ($4.75) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $4.00</font>, BTN calls $4.00

Turn: ($12.75) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)


OK so preflop and flop are boringly standard to most people. What is the best plan from the turn though?

[leo.]

I bet again, you get value from flush draws and J's. I like to play str8 forwardly in spots like these, no need to get fancy.

[Waingro]

So villain likes to fold if he doesn´t flop anything. That is good, that means he probably has something. The bad thing obviously is that the turn is a pretty big scarecard for villains holdings. Will he call 3 streets with something like 88? Perhaps, so I will bet. Also the pot is small enough so you can probably call a raise.

[jonyy6788]

bet, call raise, spike river

[Splossy]

What do people think of the thought that occurs to me in these situations: "if I don't bet something he will bet it and I won't know if it's a bluff or a made flush" and then can I call it and possibly a big bet on the river?"

[TheBobn]

I'd bet about 9 and call a shove, which is about a potsize bet at this point. There's a lot of hands u beat that he could shove either for value or as a semibluff and you still have outs going to the river. Especially from someone with a vpip of 30 and less than a full stack, i'm looking to get it all in here because he will have a large range.

[Disconnected]

I would bet again on the turn.

I wasn't quite sure about what to do if villain pushes, but a quick EV analysis showed it would actually be a pretty easy call, but of course that depends on what your assumptions are about his holdings when he pushes. So, what do you think about these assumptions if villain pushes.....

70% of the time he pushes it's with a made flush.
20% of the time he pushes, it's a semibluff (a PP, usually with a spade)
10% of the time he pushes, it's a total bluff

[ama0330]

[ QUOTE ]
What do people think of the thought that occurs to me in these situations: "if I don't bet something he will bet it and I won't know if it's a bluff or a made flush" and then can I call it and possibly a big bet on the river?"

[/ QUOTE ]

this is pretty important, its technically better to bet here than to call a bet on the river