Live $1/$2 NL: Bottom Set v. Aggressive Betting

[KipBond]

Live $1/$2 NL - ~$250 Stacks

Pre-Flop: UTG is a semi-tight, aggressive, strong player. UTG limps <font color="blue">(very rare)</font>. MP limps. I'm on the button with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] I limp. SB folds. BB checks.

Flop ($9 - $1 rake): Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

UTG bets $10. MP folds. I pause, then call. BB folds.
<font color="blue">I would normally raise someone here, but UTG is a good player. His marginal over-sized pot bet leads me to believe he has a weak Q. I want him to think I'm on a flush draw.</font>

Turn ($30 - $3 rake): 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

UTG bets $25. I call.
<font color="blue">Maybe he didn't put me on a flush draw? Why is he betting so much? Is this set over set? I'm confused.</font>

River ($80 - $5 rake): 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

UTG bets $50

What do I do?? Please analyze my thoughts on the flop. What should I have been thinking on the turn?

[SABR42]

I'd still raise the flop.

As played, I'd call river. I'd be confused though.

[IQUITyestarday]

I think he was holding a weak pair with a flush draw. The bet on the flop ... maybe a prebet to flush or top pair bet...or both.

Live, if I see some one show slightest hint of anger/fear on the turn club...I toss out about 50. I play 1-2 nl live [extreemly profitable at that level if done correctly]

Now, I dont prebet when I do this. I never prebet flushes, as EV usually negative. I will prebet a flush draw in a tourny to entice a bluff...and that has worked.

Anyway, online is different. He could be aggresive top pair better. Who could put you on a set. I think a call is proper, but don't be suprised to see him with two clubs.



[ QUOTE ]
Live $1/$2 NL - ~$250 Stacks

Pre-Flop: UTG is a semi-tight, aggressive, strong player. UTG limps <font color="blue">(very rare)</font>. MP limps. I'm on the button with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] I limp. SB folds. BB checks.

Flop ($9 - $1 rake): Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

UTG bets $10. MP folds. I pause, then call. BB folds.
<font color="blue">I would normally raise someone here, but UTG is a good player. His marginal over-sized pot bet leads me to believe he has a weak Q. I want him to think I'm on a flush draw.</font>

Turn ($30 - $3 rake): 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

UTG bets $25. I call.
<font color="blue">Maybe he didn't put me on a flush draw? Why is he betting so much? Is this set over set? I'm confused.</font>

River ($80 - $5 rake): 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

UTG bets $50

What do I do?? Please analyze my thoughts on the flop. What should I have been thinking on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

[Mr_Donktastic]

Raise the flop. If he puts you on a FD and he has a weak Q he might call your raise anyway, since people love to raise with FDs. Got to start building the pot sometime.

Turn is good, as played I would just call the river.

[KipBond]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise the flop. If he puts you on a FD and he has a weak Q he might call your raise anyway, since people love to raise with FDs.

[/ QUOTE ]

True, but I don't, usually(*). And I think he knows that (he seems to be pretty good at reading people). I figure he'd think if I raise a good amount, that I have a better Q than he does. I want to entice a big turn bet to a non-club card. If I do raise the flop, what do I make it?

Pre-Flop he limped UTG -- and he seems to be a very good player... so I'm thinking small/mid pair, or broadway cards, maybe a suited ace.

Flop bet confused me -- if he bet less, I definitely raise -- make him pay for any draws. If he bet more, I definitely raise, since he'll call with a big Q. His just over pot size bet confused me -- it really looked like he might have a weak Q.

So, what is his range on this flop, after that bet?

And then after the turn bet?

(*) I probably need to start doing that more, perhaps? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[RyanCMU]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise the flop. If he puts you on a FD and he has a weak Q he might call your raise anyway, since people love to raise with FDs. Got to start building the pot sometime.

Turn is good, as played I would just call the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Smart Money]

He could well have AcAx which is the only thing you're beating other than a bluff. (If he's a good player as you say, then he doesn't have AQ/KQ.)

JcTc, 5c4c, and a set of 8s are his other possible holdings with this betting pattern.

Why do you think he has a weak Queen? Most decent players are playing KQ minimum UTG full-handed- although ranges do open up for loose live games of course.

[KipBond]

[ QUOTE ]
Why do you think he has a weak Queen? Most decent players are playing KQ minimum UTG full-handed- although ranges do open up for loose live games of course.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought he had QJ/QT by his bet size. This was like most $1/$2 live games -- fairly loose &amp; passive pre-flop.

Anyway, he had K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

[onoble]

Fold river he obviously has Kc9c

on a serious not, anyone raise the turn to represent the flush?

[KipBond]

[ QUOTE ]
anyone raise the turn to represent the flush?

[/ QUOTE ]

What about a min-raise here? Or maybe just over min-rase: to $60 or $65. If he re-raises, then I fold. Thoughts?