Any two can win!

Captain R · #1 07-24-2007, 05:55 PM

Bay101 20-40:

I have A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in BB.

UTG, a tight, white, skinny prop player raises. He for sure has 99+ or KJ+. Literally 5-6 people cold-call, including the SB. I look at my cards and say "I have to call now, right? Any two can win!". Everybody at the table nods their head.

Flop is 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I check, UTG bets, 2 people call, I call. I have like all these great backdoor draws, right? OK, pretty loose call.

Turn is 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I quickly check, UTG makes a measured bet, LP thinks for a long time. Pretty clear LP has two overcards. He finally calls.

I raise, figuring the pot is "protected" and that makes it harder for UTG to call since he's also caught in the middle. So I obviously have to have a big hand here, right? I'm c/r'ing two opponents on a fairly scary board including the preflop raiser...

Retarded, clever? How about the flop peel?

KitCloudkicker · #2 07-24-2007, 06:00 PM

i think this play is entirely dependent on what you consider to be your fold equity. and honestly, you havent given enough info about your opponents to make a good judgement on this play yet.

Captain R · #3 07-24-2007, 06:09 PM

I think I can fold out LP like 95% of the time. UTG, maybe 35-50%. I guess this makes it an easy raise then, because the pot is easily laying me more than 2:1. Plus I have outs if he calls.

Captain R · #4 07-24-2007, 06:20 PM

Actually, the interesting part of this hand was that if LP folds, I was probably going to check-call.

I felt that if LP called, my bluff attempt was more likely to succeed because the pot is "protected" and also I catch UTG in the middle. So oddly enough I felt that it was easier to semi-bluff this hand in a 3-way pot than heads-up.

mosch · #5 07-24-2007, 06:45 PM

Raising is the most fun action in limit hold'em, but it's not always right.

This is one of those cases.

Everybody is getting 14:1 or better on their calls. So people with a pair are going to call and hope for two. People with a reasonably high heart are also going to call, and see what happens on the river.

Then on the river, if you bet into these people, somebody will call you because it's a $500 pot, and they're curious.

I would expect a counter-argument that you're cleaning your outs, but hearts are always good, jacks are almost certainly good, and aces aren't going away anyway. Not at 14:1.

If your semi-bluff worked, congratulations, those are good results. But I don't like the play at all.

KitCloudkicker · #6 07-24-2007, 06:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Raising is the most fun action in limit hold'em, but it's not always right.

This is one of those cases.

Everybody is getting 14:1 or better on their calls. So people with a pair are going to call and hope for two. People with a reasonably high heart are also going to call, and see what happens on the river.

Then on the river, if you bet into these people, somebody will call you because it's a $500 pot, and they're curious.

I would expect a counter-argument that you're cleaning your outs, but hearts are always good, jacks are almost certainly good, and aces aren't going away anyway. Not at 14:1.

If your semi-bluff worked, congratulations, those are good results. But I don't like the play at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

hmmm...if your villains are 2 of the tighter 2+2ers who are follow most of the strategy given in these forums (2+2 is b/f mania, me included, fwiw) then they arent calling both the turn and river bets without a set, flush, or two pair.

i agree that against most opponents, this play isnt going to work.

tessarji · #7 07-24-2007, 07:25 PM

I think this raise is great. Your draw is relatively huge and the flush/straight card on the turn is about as good a scare card as you could hope for.

If one of your opponents folds the turn, you will of course have to bet any river. I don't like a C/C under any circumstances because you will vomit if UTG shows AxKh or AxQh.

Obviously don't do this play if you have been caught semi-bluffing before.

n.s. · #8 07-24-2007, 08:09 PM

If UTG is the type of player that can make big laydowns, then I like this raise. Even if he doesn't fold very often, you've got enough equity that your raise really doesn't cost very much and the protected pot idea ought to at least keep him from 3-betting you.

Captain R · #9 07-24-2007, 08:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Actually, the interesting part of this hand was that if LP folds, I was probably going to check-call.

I felt that if LP called, my bluff attempt was more likely to succeed because the pot is "protected" and also I catch UTG in the middle. So oddly enough I felt that it was easier to semi-bluff this hand in a 3-way pot than heads-up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just to clarify, I'm talking about LP's call of UTG's bet on the turn here. If LP folds to UTG's bet, I was probably going to check-call. But when LP made his very weak call of UTG's bet, I knew he had practically nothing and so I check-raised.

If UTG calls my raise, I think I do have to bet the river to fold out AxKh/AxQh. I didn't think LP would call my raise, so I didn't think much about that.

andyfox · #10 07-24-2007, 08:27 PM

If we give your opponents K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], you're going to draw out to win the pot over 1/3 of the time. If, perchance, UTG throw away his overpair to your turn check-raise, that's a jackpot.

Taking one off on the flop is de rigueur.