NL25: Stacking off with nothing?

[dotbum]

I don't do this very often, so I wanted to run it by the forum. Villain is 26/8/2 over ~100 hands, seems solid enough. I'm about 16/8/4 and haven't done anything out of line.
I'm putting him on AQ/KQ/AA/KK or unlikely QQ/JJ by river, I felt it was check-fold or shove and I could get him off one pair.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $32.35
UTG+1: $26.95
MP1: $23.25
MP2: $31.75
MP3: $22.60
Hero: $26.40
Button: $9.65
SB: $26.45
BB: $27.45

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG calls, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 raises to $1.1</font>, MP3 folds, Hero calls, 3 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($3.65, 3 players)
UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 bets $2.75</font>, Hero calls, UTG folds.

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($9.15, 2 players)
MP2 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $6</font>, MP2 calls.

River: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($21.15, 2 players)
MP2 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero is all-in $16.55...</font>

Results:
Final pot: $54.25

[threads13]

I don't think he is laying down any of that range you put him on.

After 100 hands do you have an read to know if he will call down with a flush on the board?

I would have folded this PF. I would have also checked the turn.

[dotbum]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think he is laying down any of that range you put him on.

After 100 hands do you have an read to know if he will call down with a flush on the board?

I would have folded this PF. I would have also checked the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unfortunately I'm 4-tabling and haven't seen him do anything noteworthy. I normally lay down a lot better than this pre, but I've been mixing things a lot up today after a bad weekend, the limper and players behind were loose and I felt I could play a nice draw vs a few bad players IP if the leader missed. Why do you fold this? Likelyhood of domination and playing a good multiway hand heads-up?

I'm not sure about checking the turn, I floated him and he "gave up" on the turn, I think I make quite a bit of cash from this move in position.

Why won't he fold one pair? If he's been paying any attention he knows I'm not playing this way with TPTK, could be flush/straight/two pair. I'm pretty nitty about playing for stacks, as you can see. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[threads13]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think he is laying down any of that range you put him on.

After 100 hands do you have an read to know if he will call down with a flush on the board?

I would have folded this PF. I would have also checked the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unfortunately I'm 4-tabling and haven't seen him do anything noteworthy. I normally lay down a lot better than this pre, but I've been mixing things a lot up today after a bad weekend, the limper and players behind were loose and I felt I could play a nice draw vs a few bad players IP if the leader missed. Why do you fold this? Likelyhood of domination and playing a good multiway hand heads-up?

I'm not sure about checking the turn, I floated him and he "gave up" on the turn, I think I make quite a bit of cash from this move in position.

Why won't he fold one pair? If he's been paying any attention he knows I'm not playing this way with TPTK, could be flush/straight/two pair. I'm pretty nitty about playing for stacks, as you can see. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I assume when he calls the turn he has at least a pair of jacks or a FD. I don't think he will lay down those after he calls the turn(obviously with a FD). TPGK calls as does an OP or better.

[MyTurn2Raise]

raise flop


check river

[pterodactyl_]

Fold this PF please.

[HAL PHIPA]

You should def. raise the flop or check the turn. As played this bet isnt going to show a profit on the river.

[Panthro]

[ QUOTE ]
raise flop


check river

[/ QUOTE ]

[dotbum]

I'm giving him 2.3-1 odds on the river, so he needs to win ~30% of the time to show a profit. Let's say he has AA, what does my range need to be for him to profitably make the call? Does AA beat much more than a bluff in this spot?

I appreciate the feedback. Everything that has been said here is cast in stone for me too, I'm just at a stage where I'm taking everything apart and when I say "this is why I did this" and the response is simply "that's wrong" it doesn't really get me anywhere.

I think I should have raised the flop, I'm not yet comfortable with playing draws very aggressively (I am working on it) and was worried that a raise here would merely lead to a push if he had the goods. But I'm fuzzy on what's wrong with my explanations of preflop, turn and river play.

[Jeff76]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm giving him 2.3-1 odds on the river, so he needs to win ~30% of the time to show a profit. Let's say he has AA, what does my range need to be for him to profitably make the call? Does AA beat much more than a bluff in this spot?

[/ QUOTE ]

1) Don't expect villains to fold "correctly" based on your range because of odds.

2) Don't expect villains to fold overpairs.