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Old 06-28-2007, 12:12 PM
Kurn, son of Mogh Kurn, son of Mogh is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Rhode Island and Providence Plantations
Posts: 9,146
Default Re: Let\'s take this street by street...

Clearly you can't fold getting 23:1. You have the best hand way more than 4.2% of the time here. That being said I don't raise simply because every additional bet at this point has negative equity. Nobody who called the initial 2 cold is folding.

On the turn, close to half the cards in the deck should make your decision easy - fold. But if a safe card hits, there's a reasonable chance you're still ahead, so I check and let the button hang herself. I'm not really afraid of her or the BB. UTG, while she may *always* bet (or raise) with the best, will deviate if she flopped the mortal nuts (if she holds Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]), and may even wait to raise until the river if enough stay in.

I'd be prepared to call one bet on both the turn and river if no flush card falls, and if nobody folds the turn for one bet and the river is a heart, if the button bets when checked to and everybody else folds, I might even be prepared to make a crying call getting about 17:1.
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