So Am I A NIt?

[TStoneMBD]

good post but i think the odds are closer to 1:1.

[JoEyPeNeLoPe]

My point basically was that with a 10m roll losing 80% and still having 2m you could make a ton of money and still live comfortably and never have to worry about going broke if you use good br management. If you have 100k and lose 80% you not only risk having to make lifestyle changes but with 20k you pretty much will be playing the smallest stakes games around (assuming live) and you still have a realistic chance of going broke (even though it should still be pretty low if your good), and with 2m your ror would be zero if you drop down continously if necessary.

edit although i do agree that making up 80k with a 20k roll is a lot easier than making up 8mil with a 2mil roll but if its a finite roll and you don't have credit or assets to back it up you'll be fine with 2mil but could be in serious trouble with 20k.

[mlagoo]

honestly i think people generally might gamble more than you expect. there is that popular tv show... i forget what it is called but there are all the different suitcases with different amounts of money in them, and people get offered buyouts by some dude, and they have to decide whether to take the buyout or continue to gamble.

im always really surprised at these poor families who pass up on 100k to go for more, when they have a 1 in 4 (or whatever) shot of getting like $50.

i dunno, just sort of an anecdote, but either that show selects people that tend to be gamblers, or people are bigger gamblers than you would think.

that all being said, as i'm pretty yougn now, i think i'd probably risk like 30% of my networth on one flip. i can always make it back.

i think most people would risk less, because most people are older than me and have more responsibilities/people depending on them.

[gutte169]

The only thing more useless than these questions is people caring if someone is a "nit" or not, or even more so, accusing someone of being a nit. Of course you're going to wager more money in this situation than most people because you're smarter than most people and realize it's a good situation.

Some people don't put their money at risk if they don't feel they have the best of it. You are one of those people, I am one of those people, more than 90% of this forum are those kind of people. "Nit" or "Smart"?...it sounds like [censored] semantics to me.

[Haunted Ghost]

$1,428,571.00 is the amount I would bet if I had 10,000,000.

If I had 1,000,000 I would bet $142,857.00.

For a 100,000 roll I would bet $14,285.00.

[BluffTHIS!]

[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps by some people's standards. If you use the gambler's scale. But certainly not otherwise. Here are two questions:

All of the people in this country with a liquid bankroll between 100K and 10 mil are offered 7-5 on the flip of a fair coin. ONE TIME ONLY. There is NO DOUBT the flip is fair. Doubt is assumed not to be part of this problem, though in real life it would be.

A. How much do you think I would REALLY bet as a percentage of my bankroll?

B. What proportion of all 100K to 10 Mil Americans would bet a higher proportion of their bankroll (lets also elimate those with pressing expenses)?

[/ QUOTE ]


A. If you go by Kelly, then around 14%.

B. Probably a very low proportion. I think a lot of the more savvy types might bet the Kelly amount, especially as the could view it as just gambling with a year's return on a portfolio of passive investments, with the upside of increasing their "roll" by 40%, and without having to dip into investment capital except for one year's return not possibly being reinvested partially or in full.

But in fact, I think the majority of that class of people might not even be willing to wager 14% of their roll, as they would mistakely view the wager as "gambling", not realizing that is what their investments are as well, and that might especially be the case if they are more into real estate.

[RikaKazak]

By posting this question you just proved you're a NIT (I'm one too, it's not always a bad thing)

A true "are you a nit or not" question would be, assume the coin is fair, it's 50/50, and you only get one toss. What % of your bankroll would you flip for? That's seperates the nits from non-nits.

[Avatar of Wine]

[ QUOTE ]
honestly i think people generally might gamble more than you expect. there is that popular tv show... i forget what it is called but there are all the different suitcases with different amounts of money in them, and people get offered buyouts by some dude, and they have to decide whether to take the buyout or continue to gamble.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the "Deal or No Deal" scenario isn't really illustrative (prob b/c of the allure of "life-changing" money) - I work in research, and one of our stock questions is as follows:

If you were given the option of taking $50 now, or flipping a coin for $200, which would you take?

Generally, 70% or higher take the guaranteed $50 - often it's 80%, even in areas with a higher educational demographic. It would also seem that the true judge of "gamble" is for non-life changing sums, right?

[JoEyPeNeLoPe]

Well if someone offered me a guarenteed 100mil or a flip for 500mil i would take the guareneed 100mil.

[TxRedMan]

Players at the Bellagio often say, when they hear "David S 1-2 limit hold'em, David S" that you'll only sit if there's two drunks and a guy with an oxygen tank sitting at the table.

Still, who cares what people think. You're not there to win opinions or friends.