Will the FED lower rates again at the end of the month?

[ubiestmea]

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How long can the Fed and the American economy hold on to a rising balloon?

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exactly my thoughts

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Why are there always Bearish people? The American economy has been growing almost unfettered since the great depression. (Spare a few recessions) and the whole time there is always people talking about how its overvalued and its all going to come crashing down. I for one don't expect that to ever happen but who knows maybe some day we will see another great depression. The fact is right now our economy is still very strong and it probably wont slow down any time soon.

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I guess it depends on what you look at, if you look the most recent data out of the St. Louis Fed it shows the printing presses are running 24/7. Money supply growth is 24.3%!
Personally I consider this very Bearish. Please explain how you consider an economy with an 24.3% money supply growth rate to be “very strong”. What part of the economy is growing faster than the money supply?





http://research.stlouisfed.org/publi...71012/usfd.pdf

[Shoe]

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What part of the economy is growing faster than the money supply?


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NTDOY?

[kimchi]

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I guess it depends on what you look at, if you look the most recent data out of the St. Louis Fed it shows the printing presses are running 24/7. Money supply growth is 24.3%!
Personally I consider this very Bearish. Please explain how you consider an economy with an 24.3% money supply growth rate to be “very strong”.


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I'm not sure 'bearish' is the right word. If you're a speculator looking for points, then the market is very bullish. If you're an overseas investor, then the US market is likely somewhat meh.

As a UK foreign investor, The US is unattractive. The funds I track are basically flat over the last year, despite growth in the US Indexes.

The Zimbabwe Industrial Index may be increasing at 100% per month, and be bullish, but that doesn't mean I'd want to invest there.

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What part of the economy is growing faster than the money supply?


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This is a big question. I've no idea, but I'd like to hear from someone else who knows.

[technologic]

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What part of the economy is growing faster than the money supply?


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NTDOY?

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[ ] American company

[gonebroke2]

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The Zimbabwe Industrial Index may be increasing at 100% per month, and be bullish, but that doesn't mean I'd want to invest there.


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The stock market in Zimbabwe is going to infinity while the currency goes to 0. That theme seems very similar, but at a much much smaller scale to what is going on in the USA. Markets are hitting new highs while the dollar hitting new lows.

[ahnuld]

I hope so. The housing bust isnt nearly over and consumers have yet to feel the drag or are at least just starting to. I feel like it will cause a consumer led recession in the states that will only be mild because the cheap USD will boost exports and the world economy is growing strong enough to demand a lot more US goods than during past recessions. Still, I sold my consumer discretionary and consumer luxury stocks.

[tolbiny]

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I feel like it will cause a consumer led recession in the states that will only be mild because the cheap USD will boost exports and the world economy is growing strong enough to demand a lot more US goods than during past recessions.

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I think your crazy if you think exports will help ease this recession noticeably. The majority of manufacturing in the US is tied to imports. We don't manufacture cars, we import parts and assemble them, a weak dollar doesn't help those exports that rely heavily on imports. Grain, corn, soybeans all rely heavily on oil for fertilizer and transport.