flopped top set...

robrobdoe · #1 11-04-2007, 09:04 AM

First post here (been lurking for a bit). Not been playing limit hold'em for that long, so would appreciate a check on this hand.

UTG+1 was 21/5.4/1.3 after around 100 hands
Hadn't played for long with BB, but he seemed fairly loose-passive

PokerStars 0.05/0.10 Hold'em (8 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG+1 caps, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (12.40 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, UTG+1 raises, Hero 3-bets, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (9.70 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, UTG+1 raises, Hero 3-bets, BB calls, UTG+1 caps, Hero calls, BB calls.

River: (19.70 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, UTG+1 raises, Hero...

Final Pot: 31.70 BB

scpi10 · #2 11-04-2007, 10:05 AM

grunch

Hero folds. Based on UTGs stats he is a very tight raiser pf. It looks as if he hit his Q on hte turn to make trips.
You have the 5th best hand possible and the river is very big so maybe call but if BB 3 bets and UTG caps that would be bad, so I would just fold it the first time.

synth_floyd · #3 11-04-2007, 10:11 AM

It's .05/.10 hold em. I'd say call. Based on the past actions of the Big blind it doesn't seem like he would reraise on the river so you could likely see a showdown for 2 more Big bets.

robrobdoe · #4 11-04-2007, 02:27 PM

I made the call (didn't think I could fold given the size of the pot). Then:

River: (19.70 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, UTG+1 raises, Hero calls, BB 3-bets, UTG+1 caps, Hero...

Can I assume I'm definitely beat now, or is the pot again too big to fold?

nomadtla · #5 11-04-2007, 02:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Can I assume I'm definitely beat now, or is the pot again too big to fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a common missconception. That a pot can reach a level where no matter what the info tells you, you should not fold. The question is never, is the pot too big to fold? The question is, is the pot too big to fold relative to the level of information I have? Think about that and then tell me what you think of both river decisions.

robrobdoe · #6 11-04-2007, 03:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]

This is a common missconception. That a pot can reach a level where no matter what the info tells you, you should not fold. The question is never, is the pot too big to fold? The question is, is the pot too big to fold relative to the level of information I have?

[/ QUOTE ]
Good point.

I'd say UTG+1's range preflop is AJ+, QQ, KK, AA
BB has a much wider range given I don't have much info on him, and he seems loose - pocket pair (probably not higher than 10s given he didn't cap), broadway cards, Ax, suited connectors maybe

Flop doesn't narrow it down much, UTG+1 could have an overpair, AJ or possibly just overcards AQ/AK, BB could have a J, underset (though he'd probably cap), loosely played pocket pair lower than Js

BB leads out again at turn but just calls raises, no idea what he could have; UTG+1 caps this time, suggesting set of Qs or AQ (with a flush draw?), might still be an overpair

BB leads out for third time at river, and UTG+1 raises. BB could still have almost anything. UTG+1 doesn't seem scared by A, so unlikely to be KK, could still be AQ, QQ, AA. Getting over 10:1 on the call, not knowing enough about BB, and not expecting a raise behind from BB, I think the first call is correct.

After that, with the BB reraising for the first time, it suggests he's hit something (aces up, straight, outside chance of AA); UTG+1 capping means he's a lot more likely to have an overset than AQ. So the second time round, it should be a fold.

Any good?

kerowo · #7 11-04-2007, 10:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]
grunch

Hero folds. Based on UTGs stats he is a very tight raiser pf. It looks as if he hit his Q on hte turn to make trips.
You have the 5th best hand possible and the river is very big so maybe call but if BB 3 bets and UTG caps that would be bad, so I would just fold it the first time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your read isn't good enough to fold this, not in a pot this big at this level. Call down, welcome to variance.

scpi10 · #8 11-04-2007, 10:58 AM

I know it's .05/.1 but what does a 21/5.4 raise cap pf with. Then raises a donk but only smooth calls the pf 3 bettor. Then a Q hits and he raise caps it after the hero 3 bets it. It could be AQ QQ KK or AA but the river raise says it's not KK he's ahead of AQ but behind AA or QQ.

bennyhana · #9 11-04-2007, 05:18 PM

just call the raise on the river.

this is where i have been paying attention to sd numbers. well, not really this hand, more marginal situations than this. but if he is only going to SD ~30 and winning @ SD over 55 I get real worried. Again, not in this hand in particular, but in more marginal hands like TPTK where you might want to fold.

So what were the SD numbers of this guy?