200NL Bodog Flopped Flush vs. Donk

[sobos]

200NL Bodog
Effective stacks=$200
Hero is a 17/8 and the villain is a 50/20/2
UTG limps, Villain raises to $7 and Hero calls on the button with 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. UTG calls. Flop is 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. UTG checks and Villain bets $20. What is my plan? Do you shove here or make a PSB. Hero raises to $70. UTG folds and villain calls. Turn is J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Villain checks. Hero? I'm mostly concerned with the flop play. Is shoving more +EV because it doesn't put me in this awful turn spot, even though Villain may not call the shove?

[RapidEvolution]

I think the psb is fine on the flop. I'm a bit surprised that villain didn't shove over you, though. I'd almost expect it given that there's basically just a psb behind on turn. Why not bet/3bet flop? I think the last thing I'd wanna do is give a hand like AhK or AhQ a free card.

[Landlord79]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the psb is fine on the flop. I'm a bit surprised that villain didn't shove over you, though. I'd almost expect it given that there's basically just a psb behind on turn. Why not bet/3bet flop? I think the last thing I'd wanna do is give a hand like AhK or AhQ a free card.

[/ QUOTE ]

Reread original text, UTG ck'd, not OP.

At 50/20, I'd hate to concede this pot since you'll be shown a bluff on lots of occasions. You've got ~$120 in effective stacks and there is ~$160 in the pot, tough spot. Just depends on how bad the villain is here, but I'd probably lay it down to a PSB from the donk. Blah!

OP, shoving is overkill and won't net you a + result unless the villain stacks off here w/ a FD much too often. PSB insures that he is -EV on the hand. Don't look at results, play the math.

[sobos]

There's no way I can call an allin river bet.
I am playing the math. A player that donkish is probably just about as likely to call a shove as he is to call a PSB. But, I'm looking for people to verify that based on their experiences.

[Landlord79]

I tried to help you, but you aren't listening.

Since you made a PSB, you can now get away from a potentially bad situation. PSB>Shove on the flop IMO

[sobos]

Landlord79...I appreciate your comments, but I'm not sure I follow them. If I shoved the flop, then I would never have to face the turn decision. If a player this donkish is willing to call a PSB, then he'll likely call a shove. So my question to the super experienced players out there boils down to whether he'll fold to the shove yet call a PSB often enough to make making a PSB better, even given the potential turn heart.

[superpokermon]

I a spot like this, with a vulnerable hand vs. a super laggy opponent, I like to flat call on the flop and get it in on a non heart turn.

Most turn cards are safe for you, and a villain with these stats is going to lead into you very often on any turn. He bet almost pot on the flop, so he's probably making a decent sized bet when he leads the turn. You can now push all in on a safe turn without any big overbet issues. And this type of villain will often call when you have huge equity in this pot.

You might also get an overcall on the flop from UTG, which I don't mind, because it's more money in a pot that you will be winning most of the time, and it doesn't much change the way the turn will play. If both your opponents are drawing on you with a single heart, then there are only 6 hearts left in the deck. So they are going to miss on the turn very often, and then you can pull the trigger.

Also, when you raise the flop, if a heart comes on the turn, villain may recognize this is a scare card for you and he might even bet it without having a heart. If you flat call the flop, he may assume you called him with the heart draw and he'll sometimes give up on the turn when the 4th heart hits. So you may win even when the heart turns. If a heart turns and villain bets big on the turn, I fold. If he checks the turn, I check behind and maybe call a river bet.

[sobos]

Thanks, superpokermon...I like your analysis. My concern with just calling the flop is that if the villain has a hand like top pair (which he'll surely stack off with on the flop), then he may shutdown if a heart falls on the turn, whereas he'd get it allin the flop a good % of the time. Also, I don't want UTG chasing for cheap. Also, a superdonk may see an overbet on the flop as a drawing bluff and call me with as little as QQ. I typically think that getting in the sooner the better vs donks is best, but I definitely see that playing slow on this flop has its advantages.

[BadBigBabar]

shoving is wrong simply because only better hands call you and you fold out worse hands that pay you off on later streets -- seems pretty straightforward of a concept to me.

[sobos]

I disagree with this...you are assuming people are playing correctly. This donk would almost definitely call a shove with top pair.