Green Plastic article on pocketfives.com...

[great_white_hype]

It's the first article on the opening page of the site. If someone could provide a link that would be great, I'm on a school library computer and can't right click the mouse for some reason. It's entitled Poker, Profit, and the Future. I was just reading it and it really kinda is discouraging. Plastic talks about how in the near future the bigger games, 5-10 NL, 10-20 NL in particular, will begin to filter out all the suspect players and that the games will get much tougher. He goes on to say that he does not feel he will make poker his full time job and once he gets out of college and the poker boom dies down, he will not rely on poker as a significant source of his income. This is a bit discouraging for a player like me who aspires to reach the 5-10 NL games once my skill level improves and I make enough money grinding it up through the lower stakes. If plastic thinks the games will get tougher and tougher, should i even be trying to acheive this? I don't want to put the time in trying to move up if the games I aspire to get to just become superb LAG's, rock gardens, and mostly donkless. I would like to play poker as a nice supplemetary income in the future, and my only way to do so is through online poker because my future wife and I aren't interested in moving anywhere like Atlantic City or Vegas. Does anyone else have any thoughts on this article or am worrying over nothing?

[fsuplayer]

http://www.pocketfives.com/6FF646B5-...C3A078368.aspx

[great_white_hype]

Thanks appreciate it....

[9cao]

It is very simple economics. Even assuming that the current level of fish never decreases it is just too easy to enter the market. It takes less time and skill to become a successfull 5/10 player then it does to become a lawyer, doctor, etc.... and currently the top 5/10 players make more than the average lawyer, doctor, etc... How long do you think that will last?

It just means that there is a lag on the supply side of the labour market and hence the extrodinary levels of income. The demand (fish) will not be able to keep up to the growing supply (winners) and income levels will fall.

[Lady Dont Tekno]

Obviously the level of skill is going to go up, but $$ will always be available through poker. I think the current upswing of players resembles the golf boom of the 90s. Golf became wildly popular but has since died down but is still much more popular it was then before it's boom. I believe online poker is going much the same way, it will eventually decline and then plateau. However it will still be much more profitable than it was before '04.

Also adjustments can always be made to beat the current popular metagame. The best players will always be those that work the hardest, especially in the future. Live is a whole different animal and it sounds like it will forever be beatable for a good amount.

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
and currently the top 5/10 players make more than the average lawyer, doctor, etc... How long do you think that will last?

[/ QUOTE ]
Why do you think it is fair to compare the top players to average lawayers? The top lawyers make a hell of a lot more than the top 5/10 players and this will continue to be the case. This doesn't mean that the top players won't continue to do better than the worst lawyers.

[TheWorstPlayer]

i think it's because the TOP 5/10 players are AVERAGE poker players.

[slickpoppa]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
and currently the top 5/10 players make more than the average lawyer, doctor, etc... How long do you think that will last?

[/ QUOTE ]
Why do you think it is fair to compare the top players to average lawayers? The top lawyers make a hell of a lot more than the top 5/10 players and this will continue to be the case. This doesn't mean that the top players won't continue to do better than the worst lawyers.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also, I don't think it is that easy to make money at 5/10 NL. The discussions on 2+2 about winrates at that level paint a skewed picture of reality. For every poster who mints money at that level, there are probably dozens who have taken shots and gotten their asses handed to them. But the people who lose money are much less likley to post about it. And of course you have to take into account the propensity of people to exaggerate their winnings.

Even though there are people who can become successful at 5/10NL in a shorter amount of time than it takes to be a lawyer, not everyone is capable of that. I know a lot of very smart people who could be lawyers or doctors but who could not become successful high stakes poker players. I think a big reason is the extreme variance in poker. I think many potentially profitable players end up busting because they either a) start off running hot and play above their heads too quickly, or b) hit a bad downswing and start tilting. A lot of people just do not have the patience and fortitude to withstand losing 5 figures in a day.

That being said, I agree that the profitablility of poker is likely to decrease in the future.

[slickpoppa]

[ QUOTE ]
i think it's because the TOP 5/10 players are AVERAGE poker players.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is a ridiculous statement. Because of the rake, the average poker player at any level is almost by definition a losing player. Someone who is capable of winning consistently at 5/10 NL is at least in the upper 5% of all poker players.

[TheWorstPlayer]

This is like saying the average lawyer is in some other profession because they couldn't pass law school or the bar. OF PEOPLE WHO MAKE THEIR LIVING PLAYING POKER, 5/10 players are average players.