Ok spot for a bluff?

[chiTown22]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I believe you need to have a read that this guy can fold one pair hands. If you believe he will fold solid top pair hands like AJ in this spot, then I think this is a +EV bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously if he folds hands like AJ this is +EV, that's stating the obvious.

[/ QUOTE ]
The facter that determines the EV on this play is the players abiity to fold an ace not how often he has an ace. I didn't see it mentioned in OP. If that is obvious, my bad.

[Noam Chomsky]

yah, I didn't have a read that strong either way. He seemed to be a pretty good, looser tag so I assumed that if my line was credible he could fold an A.

Basically, I just sort of thought, hmm, if i were him I'd be in a pretty [censored] spot here if I got c/r'd some stack committing amount with AQ.

[Double Eagle]

I think he's calling this with any ace, but will fold quite often on the river if you follow through. If you plan for this going in then you can make the turn raise a little smaller, maybe a little less than 3x, to make the river more of a psb.

[BGnight]

What double eagle said and I think he does call turn a lot but folds river, so I think you should do it only w/ intention of shoving river. This is all only if he's a good player.
It's kinda FPS for sure, but if you like the spot go for it I say. Besides, bluffing is fun.
It sucks if you don't bet river though.

Meh, just don't do this often or at all. Not really necessary. Looks fun though.

[rakes.a.beach]

yeah, i think you'd have to be ready to fire river again

[sightless]

i dont like it, because if he calls you are screwed on the river):

[Noam Chomsky]

oh yah, I'm def shoving any river if called. good point about the raise size..it's too big.