PLO tourney hand

[getitfixed]

Full Tilt Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $20/$40
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $2935
UTG+1: $1341
MP1: $2790
MP2: $1212
MP3: $8850
HERO: $6256
Button: $3076
SB: $2083
BB: $2557

Pre-flop: (9 players) HERO is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">HERO raises to $160</font>, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($500, 3 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, HERO checks.

Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($500, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets $500</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises all-in $1181</font>, HERO???

Is this a good spot to play a big pot early in a tourney?

[chucky]

Looks good. you will have 13 outs in a 3-way hand. Even if you lose, you still have a healthy stack.

[getitfixed]

Thanks Chucky....I don't play many tourneys, snap call obv. in a cash game.

[TheRempel]

Call and call a shove. You've got too much of a hand to fold and lots of chips left if the BB does shove and you miss.

[getitfixed]

Thanks Remp

[OrrLives]

Is it really a snap call??

To make the nuts...
3 safe 9's
1 safe J
2 safe Q
2 safe K

And 5 other flush cards (not counting Qh and 9h... and the 8h and 4h may be no good).

= 13 nut outs + 1 out for the 8h/4h ~ 14 outs

Let's also add another out for the Js/Qs/Ks ~ 15 outs total.

So this means you will have ~30% chance of winning on the next card. We need roughly 2 to 1 to call profitably.


You are getting 500+500+1181+681 = 2862 to 1181 (~2.4 to 1) if the BB just calls. We are easily getting the right odds here, especially if we can make some money on the river. Although, it is important to remember that, some outs will give us a chop.

If we ASSUME that the BB is going to push over the top:
2557 (UTG+1 stack) + 1351 (SB stack) + 160 (Hero preflop)
= 4068 to 2397 (UTG+1 stack - 160) or (~1.7 to 1),
which is less than what we need to call profitably. This is if we KNEW the BB is going to push. If we called the 1181 we would have to call the UTG+1 push obviously.


Please let me know if if my math or analysis is incorrect.

Because our calling doesn't complete the action, I think this is not a snap call and that a fold isn't terrible if we knew UTG+1 is normally very passive. Remember he bet pot on the turn.

One good thing for you is that you have a huge stack and can take this gamble without it hurting you too badly. But remember that you have only put in 160 at this point and still have a very healthy stack if you fold.

[chucky]

He has pot odds to call. Additionally, hero should be willing to gamble early because the difference between finishing early and bubbling out is zero dollars. However, if hero gets a big chip stack early he has much more tourney equity.

[OrrLives]

[ QUOTE ]
He has pot odds to call. Additionally, hero should be willing to gamble early because the difference between finishing early and bubbling out is zero dollars. However, if hero gets a big chip stack early he has much more tourney equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

He doesn't have the odds if he knows the BB is going to push over the top ahead of time which is a real possibility

Just because you need to build up a big stack doesn't mean you need to risk 1/3 of your stack in a potentially unprofitable situation.

I would probably call because (1) I'm not certain UTG+1 is going to 3 bet the turn and (2) it is possible my hand is in better shape than I think it is, but I don't think it is as easy a call as everyone is saying.

[OrrLives]

[ QUOTE ]
He has pot odds to call. Additionally, hero should be willing to gamble early because the difference between finishing early and bubbling out is zero dollars. However, if hero gets a big chip stack early he has much more tourney equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here are some sample scenarios. Most likely we need between 2-to-1 and 3-to-1 to make this call profitable.


Very bad for us:
Versus a set, worse flush draw, spade flush draw, some outs are gone.
Very possible.
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qc Jd Kh Jh 9 25.00 26 72.22 1 2.78 0.264
Tc Td 9h 8h 15 41.67 21 58.33 0 0.00 0.417
As Ts Kd Qd 11 30.56 24 66.67 1 2.78 0.319


Versus two pair, spade flush draw, no hearts are live. Possible.
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qc Jd Kh Jh 12 33.33 24 66.67 0 0.00 0.333
9s 7s Tc 8d 4 11.11 32 88.89 0 0.00 0.111
As Ts Jc 9c 20 55.56 16 44.44 0 0.00 0.556


Very good for us:
Versus two pair, no spade draw, no hearts are out. Unlikely.
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qc Jd Kh Jh 16 44.44 20 55.56 0 0.00 0.444
7s Tc 9d 8d 3 8.33 33 91.67 0 0.00 0.083
As 9c 8c Td 17 47.22 19 52.78 0 0.00 0.472

[chucky]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He has pot odds to call. Additionally, hero should be willing to gamble early because the difference between finishing early and bubbling out is zero dollars. However, if hero gets a big chip stack early he has much more tourney equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here are some sample scenarios. Most likely we need between 2-to-1 and 3-to-1 to make this call profitable.


Very bad for us:
Versus a set, worse flush draw, spade flush draw, some outs are gone.
Very possible.
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qc Jd Kh Jh 9 25.00 26 72.22 1 2.78 0.264
Tc Td 9h 8h 15 41.67 21 58.33 0 0.00 0.417
As Ts Kd Qd 11 30.56 24 66.67 1 2.78 0.319


Versus two pair, spade flush draw, no hearts are live. Possible.
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qc Jd Kh Jh 12 33.33 24 66.67 0 0.00 0.333
9s 7s Tc 8d 4 11.11 32 88.89 0 0.00 0.111
As Ts Jc 9c 20 55.56 16 44.44 0 0.00 0.556


Very good for us:
Versus two pair, no spade draw, no hearts are out. Unlikely.
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qc Jd Kh Jh 16 44.44 20 55.56 0 0.00 0.444
7s Tc 9d 8d 3 8.33 33 91.67 0 0.00 0.083
As 9c 8c Td 17 47.22 19 52.78 0 0.00 0.472

[/ QUOTE ]

Very impressive. Im going to take an example from Holdem. There is a raise in ep. a mp person calls. hero gets 44 on button and calls. Flop comes Kdtc4d. players 1 and 2 get allin. It is early in a tourney, should hero risk his tourney life for the possibility of being a chip leader early on? I would not fold a set in holdem if winning the pot would substantially increase the likelihood of me making money in the tourney.

In our omaha hand, hero is not calling with just a flush draw or with non nut straight draws. Hero is calling with a hand that is fairly live with the knowledge that winning with good to marginal coinflips early in a tournament is one way of improving chances that he goes deeper in the tourney.