Straight on the River

[RainierBob]

I'm most interested in the River betting here.

My opening hand is weakened by a dead queen; on fourth when seat 2 bet, I saw it as a chance to raise out the other hands, which worked.

When Villain caught the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on fifth was unsure whether to continue -- feared an A in the hole, but figured I had reasonalbe chances for the case Q or 2 pair (but wld I have a big enough 2 pair?)

Caught great to make a straight on the river. Should I have raised? Feared Villain might catch a heart flush and reraise. Then I'd be stuck. Need help evaluating River betting in a situation like this.

7 Card Stud High ($1/$2), Ante $0.10, Bring-In $0.50 (converter)

3rd Street - (0.70 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 2: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Seat 4: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Seat 5: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 7: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Seat 8: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls___calls

4th Street - (5.20 SB)

Seat 2: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets___calls
Seat 4: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 8: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___checks___folds

5th Street - (4.60 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls

6th Street - (6.60 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls

River - (8.60 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] xx___bets
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls

Total pot: (10.60 BB)

[adanthar]

#1: Since it's obvious what your hand is, you can fold to a 3 bet
#2: he has eighty billion different hands that are not, in fact, the nuts

[Bartholow]

On 3rd with 3 callers and a dead Q, I might often not bother raising. This is covered in 7CSFAP. But raising can't be too wrong.

4th through 6th all look good to me. If you fold every time someone catches an ace and bets you are giving up too much IMHO.

River is a definite raise. He could have a flush but he could have a lot of payoff hands. I wouldn't even fold to a 3-bet, limit stud is not about making those kinds of laydowns generally.

[RainierBob]

Isn’t the key to evaluating a raise what worse hands he might call with versus what better hands he might call/reraise with?

I think my possible raising hands would be Q’s up or better. Therefore, I think he might well fold worse hands than K’s up. So what are his likely holdings.

Playing the hand, I thought of two pair on 4th st to justify his bet. But that wld mean he’d have specifically 86 in the hole. Wld he call the raise on 3rd st with [68]6? He might discount my raise because of the dead queen, but a J has also called before him, and there’s still another player to act. It seems possible but a little doubtful. (If he does have two pair here, means I’ve less to worry from the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].)

What he actually had is, as I think about it, a more natural holding – [9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. He then bet 4th with his pair of 8’s and 3 flush. Taking this as another likely holding, I have to worry about the flush when the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] hits but less about A’s. On the river, he could make A’s up with another A, K’s up with a K if he had had the K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in the hole, or a flush with a heart. (He actually made A’s up.)

Overall, a flush seems the likeliest way for him to make his hand, and then he will reraise. Also, it’s possible he might reraise with K’s up or A’s up. Calling a reraise is difficult because a flush is the most likely holding for a reraise; but if I fold, I may lose unnecessarily when he reraises with K’s up or A’s up.

My conclusion now is that just calling the river is probably best. How’s my logic here?

What do you think of his bet on 6th street unimproved? The 4th street bet helps drive out the other hands, and the fifth street bet might have folded me. But why bet 6th unimproved? [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

[Bartholow]

People hate folding two pair, so I'd say you're getting called more often than you think. For one thing when you raise on the river they don't put you on queens up, they put you on something better or a total bluff.

I think your analysis is good but I'd give him a bit wider range in general. Weird things happen in stud. He could somehow have trips etc.

His bet on 6th is probably a little sketchy but not awful. No reason really to think you have more than 1 pair still.

[Wilson]

just a quick thought, and i'm no stud expert...

how were u plannin to play the river unimproved? which i guess is the same question as how villain would play the river if he didn't improve.

if ur gonna call the river, could u raise on 6th and check down the river with queens up or worse, and bet a str8 and (possibly dependin on how villain plays) fold to a checkraise?

i mean u've got a 4 str8 showin on board, and given u raised on 3rd after that many limpers, if he gives u credit for queens, he'd have to think u've got smthg like a suited J or T in the hole! granted, he's not foldin his flush draw, but at least ur less likely to get bluffed out if he ends up with just one pair of 6's or 8's.

also why not just limp on 3rd? one of ur queens is dead and ur kicker really doesn't add a whole lot to ur hand in this mkulti way pot... ur right next to the bring in, so ur not likely to be foldin anyone out!

btw i dunnno the results, so i might just sound like a total fool! lol

[BladeRnr]

[ QUOTE ]
I think your analysis is good but I'd give him a bit wider range in general.

[/ QUOTE ]

Aside from not raising 7th, I like your line here. However, you haven't really said anything about Villain. Is he solid, a donk, or somewhere in between? Your analysis of Villain's range is fine, but you may be overestimating him if he's a typical low limit stud player.

Given the strength of your hand and the relatively non-threatening nature of his board, I'd raise 7th in a heartbeat.

[iggymcfly]

I can't imagine why you're not raising the river here. Villian's been betting the whole way here, so his most likely hand is some kind of two pair combination or trips, both of which you're beating. This is an easy, easy, raise as far as I'm concerned.

[Bill King]

bob i think you could make a case for folding the river if you believe your read is right. the pot isnt too big where you need to be making a less informed call with 1 pair.

this to me looks like he got lucky with two broadway cards burried.

i fold the river unimproved. might be little weak, but this doesnt seem like a bad spot to make a tight fold.

[Bartholow]

Yeah, I do think with just 1 pair it would be close in terms of folding the river. I'd be a lot more likely to make this kind of fold live though.