I hate my options

[brettbrettr]

Live 10-20 half game, game is playing pretty loose, somewhat aggro pre, very honest post. My image is "action," I've been splashing around a bit, but nothing crazy nuts. I basically raise a lot pre and try to see if the people who call me make a hand. ANYHOO, I"m utg +1, this pot is 10-20.

one limper, I limp with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3 more limps, button raises, sb folds, BB calls, all call.

8 to the flop for 16 sbs: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
checked to utg who bets, I ????

utg thinks I'm more action than I am, but likely isn't betting into this big a field without top pair, or a pair + draw, or a big decent draw.

[aK13]

Call. I don't think you push out any hands you want, and given the read we're probably drawing.

[drbk2]

Pot's too big to fold right here so call. Folding is ok too. Raising is bad.

[ssmallz]

How likely is UTG to 3 bet you? If he's not then I like raising here. If PFR has AQ or someone else has Q9 raising might get them to lay down and buy you 3 more outs. On top of that you can get laydowns from from QJ maybe even AJ (longshot) if these players are weak enough. You have enough equity to continue on this flop and the pot is huge so you've gotta try to do anything you can to win it. Folding IMO would be a pretty big mistake b/c you've got a lot of equity here. Another interesting parlay is if UTG has a flush draw and pfr had QQ. If you raise you might be able to get him to lay down the best hand and get it HU w/the draw.

[Bad Lobster]

[ QUOTE ]


...8 to the flop for 16 sbs: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
checked to utg who bets, I ????

utg thinks I'm more action than I am, but likely isn't betting into this big a field without top pair, or a pair + draw, or a big decent draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your goal here isn't to outthink UTG; it's to protect your hand. But the pot's too big to protect with a flop raise. Anybody with any sort of draw has an easy call, even for two bets; there'll be 19 small bets in the pot if you raise.

Your choices:

1) raise now for value. You'll get up to 7-1 return on any money you put in the pot now, and your chances of winning are much better than 1:7.

2) concede the turn card to anyone who has a draw; call and plan to raise the turn to present them with two big bets to stay after that.

I think #2 is the book solution (MS&M) but #1 seems to work pretty well for me. Either way, you're in a very profitable situation.

[jba]

I like calling now and seeing what happens.

are the three limpers between you and the button the type to fold preflop to a 3bet? if not I like 3betting pf.

[HOWMANY]

[ QUOTE ]
I like calling now and seeing what happens.

are the three limpers between you and the button the type to fold preflop to a 3bet? if not I like 3betting pf.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree with everything. If OPs read was such that we have the best hand fairly often on the flop then we should probably raise, but that doesn't sound like the case.

[daveT]

Raise.

There seems to be a strong possibility that the BB is betting out a draw, nullifying the concern that you will not be able to blow out people behind you that are drawing. Would he go for a check-raise if he only had TP? Really, the hand pivots on this point.

[tradingman123]

Brett, who was UTG? Its Larry, BTW...