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#11
10-14-2007, 08:39 PM
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Re: AA river decision
[ QUOTE ]
I call river as played versus this villain, though it's pretty close given his passivity. [/ QUOTE ] 1.7 on 70 vpip is extremely aggressive; granted it's only 40 hands but this guy is either betting anything anywhere or folding a lot. On the end I think this guy is either bluffing an inferior split/pocket pair using the rr flush or has 2x clubs or Th8h. I normally play limit but you need to be right here 1/3 and in an essentially readless situation the way the board has drawn up, I think you need better odds to make the call. He makes a teensy-tiny flop donk, probably bets turn thinking you'll give up but he calls a big raise. Because he didn't reraise turn he doesn't have a J; if he doesn't have a J then he must have donked flop with an inferior split/pocket pair or heart draw. So on the turn he either picked up a 4-fl or str draw + 4-fl. If he's been b-f a lot I pitch this. 
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#15
10-14-2007, 08:59 PM
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Re: AA river decision
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I call river as played versus this villain, though it's pretty close given his passivity. [/ QUOTE ] 1.7 on 70 vpip is extremely aggressive; granted it's only 40 hands but this guy is either betting anything anywhere or folding a lot. On the end I think this guy is either bluffing an inferior split/pocket pair using the rr flush or has 2x clubs or Th8h. I normally play limit but you need to be right here 1/3 and in an essentially readless situation the way the board has drawn up, I think you need better odds to make the call. He makes a teensy-tiny flop donk, probably bets turn thinking you'll give up but he calls a big raise. Because he didn't reraise turn he doesn't have a J; if he doesn't have a J then he must have donked flop with an inferior split/pocket pair or heart draw. So on the turn he either picked up a 4-fl or str draw + 4-fl. If he's been b-f a lot I pitch this. [/ QUOTE ] Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players LegoPoker Hand History Converter BB: $25 Hero (UTG): $42 MP: $27.30 CO: $10.75 BTN: $27.40 SB: $46.05 Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG) <font color="red">Hero raises to $0.85</font>, 3 folds, SB calls $0.75, BB folds Flop: ($1.95) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">SB bets $0.25</font>, Hero calls $0.25 Turn: ($2.45) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">SB bets $2</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $6</font>, SB calls $4 River: ($14.45) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">SB bets $13</font>, Hero calls $13 Results: $40.45 Pot ($2 Rake) Hero showed A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (two pair, Aces and Jacks) and WON $38.45 (+$18.35 NET) SB showed 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (two pair, Jacks and Sevens) and LOST (-$20.10 NET)
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#16
10-14-2007, 09:09 PM
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Re: AA river decision
why dont i ever get the juicy tables??
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#17
10-14-2007, 10:04 PM
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Re: AA river decision
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I call river as played versus this villain, though it's pretty close given his passivity. [/ QUOTE ] 1.7 on 70 vpip is extremely aggressive; granted it's only 40 hands but this guy is either betting anything anywhere or folding a lot. On the end I think this guy is either bluffing an inferior split/pocket pair using the rr flush or has 2x clubs or Th8h. I normally play limit but you need to be right here 1/3 and in an essentially readless situation the way the board has drawn up, I think you need better odds to make the call. He makes a teensy-tiny flop donk, probably bets turn thinking you'll give up but he calls a big raise. Because he didn't reraise turn he doesn't have a J; if he doesn't have a J then he must have donked flop with an inferior split/pocket pair or heart draw. So on the turn he either picked up a 4-fl or str draw + 4-fl. If he's been b-f a lot I pitch this. [/ QUOTE ] Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players LegoPoker Hand History Converter BB: $25 Hero (UTG): $42 MP: $27.30 CO: $10.75 BTN: $27.40 SB: $46.05 Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG) <font color="red">Hero raises to $0.85</font>, 3 folds, SB calls $0.75, BB folds Flop: ($1.95) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">SB bets $0.25</font>, Hero calls $0.25 Turn: ($2.45) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">SB bets $2</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $6</font>, SB calls $4 River: ($14.45) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">SB bets $13</font>, Hero calls $13 Results: $40.45 Pot ($2 Rake) Hero showed A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (two pair, Aces and Jacks) and WON $38.45 (+$18.35 NET) SB showed 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (two pair, Jacks and Sevens) and LOST (-$20.10 NET) [/ QUOTE ] Nice. I'm guessing you quoted my post so I could talk more? What do you want me to say?
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#18
10-14-2007, 10:08 PM
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Re: AA river decision
Bet the flop. Sure, this was the 1 in 10 time that he had nothing but usually the min-bet = FD or medium pair. He'll call your raise with the FD and looking at his numbers he'll often call with TT, 99 maybe 88 as well so just do it. You are protecting your hand and getting value from a worse one - that makes it by far the best option.
Don't make decisions based on what he might have and what he might do - make decisions based on his range.
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