Quit poker because of bad luck?

[SA125]

Cliff notes - wah, wah, wah.

Ok I'll bite. Don't know if it's a joke, but it's a timely post for me. I've played a lot of live poker and it's so ridiculous that I can remember the exact two times the deck has hit me in the face this year. I've lost count of the amount of sessions where I was card dead or ran stupid bad. The scale is so one sided it defies the logic that luck balances out.

Same with online. I run ahead to a certain amount and like clockwork, come back down and stay in a range. Beat all the shortstacks, but lose to all the big stacks when AI. Not losing overall but far from a big winner.

The problem for me is that I know one thing is true when it comes to playing poker seriously. If you don't have the discipline to sit down at the table and just fold, or to take a ridiculous run of sick beats in stride, you can't beat the game. There will be plenty of sessions like that and the inability to deal with it means you're not cut out for it.

My problem lately is maintaining the desire to maintain that discipline. I'm just really tired of not getting my fair share of luck. Let alone a good run. It's frustrating. Actually, it's demoralizing.

I've never been one to tilt. I get up and walk away before I tilt off my stack. Lately though I've found myslef making -EV plays because I figure I'm due to for my fair share of good luck. The thoughts of an uninformed, undisciplined amature. I realize that when I start thinking like that, I've been beaten down pretty good. It's demoralizing.

Good news is everything else in life could always be better, but it's good.

As I'm about to submit, I'm thinking "probably a really bad post." What the hell. It's the truth. GL OP. It happens to everyone.

[jj12]

I call bs. I just did the following simple calculation in R:

> pbinom(240,1000,0.74)
[1] 7.039336e-239

Basically it is saying that if you are flipping with 74% chance the probability of winning less that 240 flips after doing 1000 flips total is less than 7.039336e-239. This doesn't mean that it is impossible but makes your story extremely not credible.

[sauroneru]

I fudged a little for drama =). The 74%/24% were from my 100 biggest hands, but the rest aren't helping. I'm about 70%/65% overall, but that doesn't do a good job explaining the overall results. I didn't use the calculator, but keep track of hands in Excel. The sheet was started at first to help me keep my sanity after a horrible run, but then it started to devour my soul. It's amazing how just a little -EV every day affects your winnings and mental health.

[Der He is]

What a baby. Run bad for 11 years than talk to me...Its a sick game, person who invented it should be hanged in the middle of the street, but I love it

[ike]

[ QUOTE ]
I fudged a little for drama =). The 74%/24% were from my 100 biggest hands, but the rest aren't helping. I'm about 70%/65% overall, but that doesn't do a good job explaining the overall results. I didn't use the calculator, but keep track of hands in Excel. The sheet was started at first to help me keep my sanity after a horrible run, but then it started to devour my soul. It's amazing how just a little -EV every day affects your winnings and mental health.

[/ QUOTE ]

its about a million times more likely that you're doing the math wrong than actually running this bad

that may be a conservative estimate

[ades]

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i certainly wouldnt give up, OP. sooner or later you're due for a SICK UPSWING!

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It's not exactly like he's more probable to hit a rush than anyone else.....

[rand]

roulette history-bet it all on black next time?

[IHateCats]

Without either some data to back this up or a long history of posting & demonstrated practice, this kind of post has little value, it won't be given much credibility nor should it. While people can go on sick swings for large ranges, even 20k-50k+ hands, the further it gets out of that range the more unlikely the op's claims get.

[dankhank]

there are always going to be statistical outliers on the luck scale. the reason you hear about them slightly more often on this site is because this is the only place where the sick fucxks who have the worst aberrations might continue to play.

[DJ Sensei]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i certainly wouldnt give up, OP. sooner or later you're due for a SICK UPSWING!

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not exactly like he's more probable to hit a rush than anyone else.....

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ades you're out of your element here. do you know anything about elementary rush theory, or the comeback probablility cycle?

suffice it to say, he's due.