NL 200, what to do on the river

[TheStandman]

Seat9 plays about 30% of the games preflop. It's a
conservative player and did not give any action in the
past 60 hands.

What would you recommend Seat3 to do after the raise
of $ 127?

NL $200 No Limit Holdem
Table (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 10: Seat10 ( $211.6 )
Seat 1: Seat1 ( $456.96 )
Seat 2: Seat2 ( $334.65 )
Seat 3: Seat3 ( $445.45 )
Seat 4: Seat4 ( $254.55 )
Seat 5: Seat5 ( $91.55 )
Seat 6: Seat6 ( $276.55 )
Seat 7: Seat7 ( $0 ) (sitout)
Seat 8: Seat8 ( $198.7 )
Seat 9: Seat9 ( $265.77 )
Seat2 posts small blind [$1].
Seat3 posts big blind [$2].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Seat3 [ 3d 9s ]
Seat4 calls [$2].
Seat5 folds.
Seat6 folds.
Seat8 folds.
Seat9 calls [$2].
Seat10 calls [$2].
Seat1 calls [$2].
Seat2 calls [$1].
Seat3 checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 9d, Jh, 3s ]
Seat2 checks.
Seat3 bets [$5].
Seat4 calls [$5].
Seat9 calls [$5].
Seat10 folds.
Seat1 calls [$5].
Seat2 folds.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 9h ]
Seat3 bets [$15].
Seat4 folds.
Seat9 calls [$15].
Seat1 calls [$15].
** Dealing River ** [ 10c ]
Seat3 bets [$45].
Seat9 raises [$127].
.....

[terp]

http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter

try again.

[quarkncover]

TheStandman-

This is a tough spot. If Seat9 has shown to be incredibly nitty I might be able to find a fold here. I'd call here but I wouldn't like it. I might fold to a shove.

[terp]

i don't think your reads here are enough. i've seen players who fit that description light up in odd spots.

some players like this have an affinity for inside straight draws or open enders on three-flush flops. othertimes i expect to see something like A9s that picked up a flush draw on the turn. loose tight ring players have all kinds of weird leaks that fit he action this hand.

of the possible full house hands, i think 910 makes no sense. there are three J9 hands, three JJ and one 33. PFR stat would be key here for determining possibility of JJ.

against donkeys, i feel like JJ/J9/33/KQ make equal sense based on action. not too many other hands outside of a pure bluff or a donkishly played overpair make much sense. first three he was slowplaying and fourth he was drawing.

if you think KQ has more than an outside likelihood and will be called if you put him all in, i push.

without reads i feel pretty gross. i'm either leaving money on the table against a donk with a straight or walking into a monster.

[younghov17]

on turn if im betting again with so many callers, im betting a lot more than 15, otherwise im check raising that [censored] up hiiiiiiiiiiigh. as playe don river im probably thinking he hit a higher boat and ill fold because he hasnt shown any action.