Daliman's NFL wong teasers: Week 8 - Page 5

JPT III · #41 10-26-2006, 09:37 AM

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Dali and all: Have you had the +3/+2.5 discussion in the earlier Wong threads? If so, don't want to rehash it, but if not, who here is on the side of trying to tease the good-looking +3's, and who is on the side of only doing them if the line moves against you to +2.5? "Good-looking" +3's are not that hard to spot, as the Houston +3 line has been -115 to -120 at most places, so was clearly close to a +2.5 line.

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I buy that. Not sure if it's been discussed recently.

PierceAndPierce · #42 10-26-2006, 03:50 PM

Judging by your YTD stats, wong teasers seem profitable. However, what kinds of added risks come with WTs? (If there are any). If the added risks are less than the added returns, then why is it that most people do not know about WTs? And finally, how important would you say the ability to handicap games is when it come to making successful WTs?

Coolers · #43 10-29-2006, 08:19 PM

Jets, Colts, Ravens, and Texans cashed. Waiting on Vikings tomorrow to send me somewhere warm this Christmas.

Thremp · #44 10-29-2006, 08:21 PM

Yeah and Eagles pissed out... Gay.

I run bad.

DrNo888 · #45 10-29-2006, 08:25 PM

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Jets, Colts, Ravens, and Texans cashed. Waiting on Vikings tomorrow to send me somewhere warm this Christmas.

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Same here!

Go Vikes!

Daliman · #46 10-29-2006, 08:33 PM

Yet again, I go into the mon nite game undefeated(4-0), the Vikes covering well be berry berry goot.

Austiger · #47 10-29-2006, 10:07 PM

A couple of questions from a noob.

If you tease two games and you have one at +9, and they lose by 9 and you win the other game, do you lose the tease? If that is so, it's like you're only getting 5.5 points and not 6, correct? Or is there a way around that?

Why is teasing a game from +2.5 a Wong and +3 not? You're landing on +8.5 or +9, so how much difference is there?

also- is Wonging NCAAF +EV or just the NFL?

Daliman · #48 10-29-2006, 10:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
A couple of questions from a noob.

If you tease two games and you have one at +9, and they lose by 9 and you win the other game, do you lose the tease? If that is so, it's like you're only getting 5.5 points and not 6, correct? Or is there a way around that?

Why is teasing a game from +2.5 a Wong and +3 not? You're landing on +8.5 or +9, so how much difference is there?

also- is Wonging NCAAF +EV or just the NFL?

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#1 Depends on the book. I think a tie and win will always just be your $$$ back at most books, but at some books, even a tie and a LOSS is a push, which I think adds 2-3% to your edge.

#2 When you are at 3, there is already the value of getting the 3 built in to the line, as there is a BIG difference between 2.4 and 3, but as has been gone over numerous times in these threads I do every week, going +3 to +9 is usually +ev also, just not intrinsically as +EV as going from 2.5 to 8.5.

#3 There has been no statistical analysis that I am familiar with on NCAA football, but the consensus seems to be there isn't near enough parity to make it profitable to wong tease.

MyTurn2Raise · #49 10-29-2006, 10:42 PM

with the NCAA question,
just a quick glance is that there is a larger standard deviation in the outcomes of college games. Many more games fall outside of the 6 to 7 point range, so teasing loses value.

I haven't looked at it super close, but I remembered just looking at some preliminary data made me disregard it.

Austiger · #50 10-29-2006, 10:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
A couple of questions from a noob.

If you tease two games and you have one at +9, and they lose by 9 and you win the other game, do you lose the tease? If that is so, it's like you're only getting 5.5 points and not 6, correct? Or is there a way around that?

Why is teasing a game from +2.5 a Wong and +3 not? You're landing on +8.5 or +9, so how much difference is there?

also- is Wonging NCAAF +EV or just the NFL?

[/ QUOTE ]
#1 Depends on the book. I think a tie and win will always just be your $$$ back at most books, but at some books, even a tie and a LOSS is a push, which I think adds 2-3% to your edge.

#2 When you are at 3, there is already the value of getting the 3 built in to the line, as there is a BIG difference between 2.4 and 3, but as has been gone over numerous times in these threads I do every week, going +3 to +9 is usually +ev also, just not intrinsically as +EV as going from 2.5 to 8.5.

#3 There has been no statistical analysis that I am familiar with on NCAA football, but the consensus seems to be there isn't near enough parity to make it profitable to wong tease.

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Cool thanks.