|
|
#1
10-09-2007, 07:14 AM
|
|||
|
|||
USC / Stanford
Did any books take moneyline bets on this game?
|
|
#3
10-10-2007, 12:46 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: USC / Stanford
So Stanford was 1.3% to win, according to the books? That's higher than I would've expected, for the "biggest upset of all time". Does anyone know if it actually was the biggest upset ever, in moneyline terms, as opposed to by spread?
|
|
#4
10-10-2007, 04:27 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: USC / Stanford
Underdog bias.
|
|
#6
10-10-2007, 05:41 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: USC / Stanford
Two things:
1. This wasn't even the biggest upset of the season (the prize there goes to App St. over Michigan in week one). 2. The 1.3% may not be indicative of true expectations. The favorite/longshot bias exists in these events with huge favorites (which is why bridgejumpers are +EV for those with adequate bankroll). Take a look at a good article by Justin Wolfers at Wharton (link below), to see some arguments as to why this may be so: http://bpp.wharton.upenn.edu/jwolfer...gshot_Bias.pdf
|
|
#7
10-10-2007, 08:11 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: USC / Stanford
[ QUOTE ]
1. This wasn't even the biggest upset of the season (the prize there goes to App St. over Michigan in week one). [/ QUOTE ] Yes it was. ASU was "only" about a 32 point dog to Michigan.
|
|
#9
10-10-2007, 03:57 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: USC / Stanford
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Underdog bias. [/ QUOTE ] People don't like to lay vast amounts to win a pittance. [/ QUOTE ] pretty damn amazing that I'm up betting the huge fave moneyline parlays this year considering the absolute carnage that has taken place.... I bridgejump oh so goot.
|
|
#10
10-10-2007, 04:03 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: USC / Stanford
[ QUOTE ]
Two things: 1. This wasn't even the biggest upset of the season (the prize there goes to App St. over Michigan in week one). 2. The 1.3% may not be indicative of true expectations. The favorite/longshot bias exists in these events with huge favorites (which is why bridgejumpers are +EV for those with adequate bankroll). Take a look at a good article by Justin Wolfers at Wharton (link below), to see some arguments as to why this may be so: http://bpp.wharton.upenn.edu/jwolfer...gshot_Bias.pdf [/ QUOTE ] Umm... Where is he betting with a 23% takeout?
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
