Oliver Perez? Are you joking?

iggymcfly · #1 10-19-2006, 07:09 AM

Yeah, I'm 0-2 trying to bet individual games on St. Louis this series, but I'm going back to the well one more time. The Mets have Oliver Perez starting Game 7 against St. Louis and I'm all over the Cardinals at +104.

I mean I could have seen Trachsel or Oliver (Darren that is), but Perez just seems like the pitcher that will give the Mets the worst chance possible here. In an inadvisable GAMBOL GAMBOL sort of move, I'm betting 5 units to go with my 4 unit series bet that's already in play and will be decided by tonight's results.

GO CARDS!

(Note: Get it while it's hot. The line moved from +106 to +104 while I was deciding how much I wanted to bet.)

silentbob · #2 10-19-2006, 10:11 AM

Honestly, I don't think betting this game is particularly +EV. Oliver Perez is as likely to get lit up as he is to shut down the Cardinals completely. He was a top 5 pitcher in the NL as recently as two years ago, whereas Trachsel and Oliver haven't been the top 5 of anything ever.

Because the variance on Perez is so high, I think that if you bet a side, you may as well take the run line because the game won't be close either way.

iggymcfly · #3 10-19-2006, 10:46 AM

Are his results from two years ago really relevant? The fact is that he's been bad all season long, and in the start that people were praising him for (in Game 4), he gave up 5 runs in 5 2/3 innings. I really don't see Perez "shutting down the Cards completely" to be a likely result at all. I think the best chance for the Mets is to try to get a few good innings out of Perez and get to the bullpen early, then knock a few runs off of Suppan to get a 5-4 win or something.

primetime32 · #4 10-19-2006, 10:49 AM

and can the mets trust wagner to hold a lead under 4 going into the 9th?

CarlSpackler · #5 10-19-2006, 12:14 PM

No doubt Wagner makes me nervous, but one thing to remember is that Wagner is nortorious for pitching worse when he's not in a save situation such as last night. LaRussa even mentioned that they would of seen a different Billy Wagner had the game been closer last night.

As for Perez, obiviously he will be on a short leash since Darren Oliver is well rested. I think starting Perez is the right move as D. Oliver hasn't started a game in over 2 years, and no way do I want Trachsel anywhere near the mound.

kioshk · #6 10-19-2006, 12:27 PM

I think the Mets at home, with their bats, with their depth, are hungrier than the Cards. Suppan > Perez, OK, but Carpenter >> Mayne. I think the Mets think this is their time and are going to find a way to win this game. And LaRussa's teams don't exactly have a history of rising to an occasion.

silentbob · #7 10-19-2006, 12:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Are his results from two years ago really relevant? The fact is that he's been bad all season long

[/ QUOTE ]
When he's on, he's ON. His horrible overall numbers are a result of getting shelled in the starts where he's not on. While I've overstating things somewhat to suggest that he's 50/50 to put together a quality start, the comment about his variance holds. Suppan is much more predictable -- 5 or 6 innings, 2-3 runs allowed.

Balzac · #8 10-19-2006, 03:50 PM

After much back and forth I decided to put all my eggs in one basket:

Mets Moneyline (-126)
Mets -1.5 (+165)

Will be flipping between this and the UNC Virginia game tonight. Come on Tarheels!

Edit: As in Come on... Beat the 7 point spread. I'm not that much of a gambling man

Derek123 · #9 10-19-2006, 04:35 PM

Cardinals +116 now at Bodog

MyTurn2Raise · #10 10-19-2006, 06:16 PM

I did bet on yes for Albert Pujols scoring a run at -122
Pujols is 3 for 6 with 2 HR verse Oliver Perez.

He's scored in 6 of 10 games this playoff season.

He was 5th in runs scored this year in the NL after leading the NL the previous 3 seasons.