***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***

[Vyse]

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Where? In the minor leagues obviously, you dumb ass:

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Hahaha, you called me a dumbass. Funny. umad?

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2005 - .300, 20 HR

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Are you a sportswriter? 2005: TWENTY-TWO YEAR OLD IN SINGLE A. Duh?

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2006 - .292, only 8 HR, but a 52:77 BB:K ratio (showing improvement of a young hitter)

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2006: .292/.360/.415 line at age 23 in Double-A... in a hitter's league (2006 park factor: 1021).

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2007 - .305, 13 HR (before call up, 6 more HR after call up)

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.285/.348/.479 line as a 24-year-old in Triple-A PCL, a massive hitter's park (park factors past three years: 1047/1073/1089) while most of the rest of the league is also in ginormous hitter's parks. Unimpressive.

Charlotte is also a hitter's park, though not a huge one. But it was all BA driven, so good luck with that.

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Richar has the tools to be a .280-.300 hitter with 20 HR pop.

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In what world do you think minor league stats translate exactly to the MLB? He's a career .293 in the minors, so he's going to be a .300 hitter in the MLB? He has a career .293/.342//.442 line in the minors despite being old for almost every level he was at and playing in massive hitter's parks and leagues. He has no upside and is not very good. If he's a league-average 2B the Sox should be ecstatic.

Again, unless his D is amazing, he is unimpressive.

Learn how to analyze players.

[slothinator]

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Learn how to analyze players.

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Coming from the biggest troll in this forum, I found this incredibly amusing.

I'm not basing my anaylis on his BA at those levels, because I know that isn't a good indicator. What I am looking at are his BB:K ratios. Those numbers support him being able to hit for a good average, including the 16:33 he put up in the majors last year. I realize he was "old" for a player at those levels. It means his run as a decent major league player is going to be shorter than someone who had a head start, and to not expect the world from him. I don't think .280-.300 and 20 HR is a lot to expect from him. And I certainly think he's going to be better than Uribe.

[Vyse]

BB:K doesn't alone prove being able to hit for good average. If MLB hitters know they can challenge you and get you out, they will do so and it doesn't matter how good your BB:K ratio is. Richar is not a threat with the bat -- someone who's not lazy should go look up his translated SLG, I'm sure it's mediocre -- so pitchers will challenge him and his BA will go down.

I'll be glad to place a bet on any amouont of money that Richar is not more valuable than Uribe. What metric do you want to use?

No, being old for the level means your stats have to be further discounted. Considering Richar's already weren't impressive, especially when adjusting for context... you're left with a bad player.

Yeah, that 16:33 really supported that .230 average.

[slothinator]

So you discount BA when I used it at one point, then use it yourself to try and discredit another one of my other arguments. Which is it?

Also, his BABIP was .240. That's why his BA was .230 last year. When his BABIP normalizes over a full season, you're looking at a .280, maybe even .300 hitter. So again, that's more hits and walks over a full season than Uribe, with the same number of HR.

I will admit that I am not factoring in defense when comparing these two players. My focus on player analysis tends to be strictly from a fantasy baseball perspective. If someone can show that D makes Uribe a better option than Richar, I'll concede that moving Uribe to 2B ahead of Richar is the better option. And I have now officialy spent more time analyzing Danny Richar than I ever intended.

[MikeyPatriot]

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.230/.289/.406

.234/.284/.394

Which one is Richar, which one is Uribe?

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You realize one is an established 28 year old major leaguer with a track record of poor performances, and the other is 24 years with a good minor league record. And that one costs less than the other, and one has more potential/upside, etc...oh, and one has history of pistol whipping people and threatening to kill them.

I'm still surprised the White Sox did not go after Eckstein. Maybe they learned their lesson after the Erstad signing.

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Were you saying this to me?

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I thought you were saying there was no difference between the two players. Have I fallen victim to a level here?

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Vyse said Uribe was a solid player, clearly better than Richar. I provided those stats to show that there was virtually no difference (excusing Richar's poor sample size) between the two at the plate in Richar's age-24, rookie year and Uribe's age 27, 7th year. I agree with everything you've said in this thread regarding the two.

Edit: I will say that you shouldn't just say, "His BABIP was low, it'll go regress towards the mean." I think it's important to look at things like line drive rates. It's hard to be unlucky when you hit weak ground balls and pop flies.

[Vyse]

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So you discount BA when I used it at one point, then use it yourself to try and discredit another one of my other arguments. Which is it?

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Wrong. You used BA and, to a lesser extent, HRs to tell the whole story of how Richar was good. That's why I laughed at you. The comment in my last post was further poking fun at you for saying how his strikeout-to-walk ratio supported his BA and even THROWING IN HIS MLB STRIKEOUT-TO-WALK RATIO to support that statement when he was horrible in the majors and had a supremely low BA. Hence you're inconsistent and make little sense = I poke fun and don't take you seriously. If you're actually knowledgable and stuff I have no problem taking you seriously and having an actual debate.

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Also, his BABIP was .240. That's why his BA was .230 last year. When his BABIP normalizes over a full season, you're looking at a .280, maybe even .300 hitter. So again, that's more hits and walks over a full season than Uribe, with the same number of HR.

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What's his LD%? That will let you find his expected BABIP... He isn't a pitcher, dude.

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My focus on player analysis tends to be strictly from a fantasy baseball perspective.

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Unfortunately this isn't fantasy baseball.

Even in fantasy baseball, though, Richar blows chunks and at best will be a platoon player when he's at home.

[MikeyPatriot]

Extremely quick and dirty AAA -> MLB translation for Richar:

404 AB
101 H
19 D
4 T
8 HR
33 BB
89 SO

.250/.307/.406

That's just for his first full year in the majors.

[MikeyPatriot]

PECOTA pegs him as a .255/.308/.390 type guy over the next 5 years.

[kyleb]

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Also, his BABIP was .240. That's why his BA was .230 last year. When his BABIP normalizes over a full season, you're looking at a .280, maybe even .300 hitter.

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That's not how you analyze BABIP for hitters. BABIP for hitters is heavily dependent on LD%, as Vyse said. The easy formula is .120 + LD% = eBABIP, but a full regression analysis gives a best fit line of 763LD% + .265GB% + .131FB%.

[rwperu34]

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And I have now officialy spent more time analyzing Danny Richar than I ever intended.


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Vyse will do that to you. I got sucked in on Josh Anderson [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

One quick point. When analyzing minor leaguers, age relative to league is very important. A 22 y/o mashing in A ball is not as valuable as a 19 y/o. It's not because of the length of career, it's because of physical maturity and development time left. It's also usually a good indication of the tools of the player.

Uribe is a quality defender wheras Richar is not, or at least might not be. Richar does not have a very high ceiling. His value is that he's a cheap player that could be league average and is ready for the bigs right now. For the White Sox to trade Uribe, they would have to use the savings to replace his production. They should not trade him for prospects unless they plan on spending the money saved elsewhere.