Improving On Buffett And Desert Cat

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...What he's saying essentially is that the market price is a pretty good unbiased estimator of future prices. ....

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No he's saying that the current market price is at least a decent indication of the current, true value. Perhaps I"m being a nit, perhaps you meant future earnings.

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No I meant future prices - value is dependent upon the discounting mechanism (and the holder, to a lesser extent), so there's no such thing as the single current true value, other than the current price. Also, David keeps proposing hypothetical tests (not just in this thread but in earlier ones) regarding how he thinks any single security's price in the future is likely to be closer to the current price than any one person's estimate of its value. This is likely to be true even if you're a much better estimator of a security's "true value" than the market, as long as the market premium or discount to the true value tends to persist over time.

What some arguing against David are missing, however, is the following. If Stock X is trading at $50 and you estimate its "value" to be $70. But say, your threshold for buying is such that you'd only buy X if it traded at $45. Then it's entirely disingenuous to say that you think X is worth $70, because by your own action, you'd rather have $50 than a share of X. Clearly it's not worth $70 to yourself.