Borgata 2/5NL: deep stacked w/ mid set

[overun]

Hero has about 1200. Villain covers. Hero's image has been rather TAG, same as villain.

Villain limps in mid position. Another limps. Hero raises in LP to 30 with 88. Only villain calls.

Flop ($70): 10 8 6 rainbow
Villain leads for 65. Hero raises to 200. Villain calls.

Turn ($470): K
Villain checks. Hero checks.

River ($470): 6
Villain leads for 200. Hero raises allin.

Is this standard? Is there a better line for hero to take on any street? All comments welcome.

[ship_it_trebek]

I'm betting the turn so it's easier to get stacks in on the river. As played if he doesn't bet the river, you can't get your stack in here since the pot is only 470.

[KurtSF]

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I'm betting the turn so it's easier to get stacks in on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep.

[overun]

Just as a thought, what is everyone's range for villain here?

I'm thinking a reasonable range is something along the lines of 99-AA, AK, KQ, ATs, 79s, 86s, and 66.

Of those hands, AA/KK would probably reraise preflop, so those are pretty unlikely. JJ-QQ is somewhat reasonable. TT is possible. 79s of course is possible. AK/KQ are probably unlikely as well since I don't think he'd call the flop raise, but maybe there's a small chance. As for the other hands, I don't think he'd bet the river with those, since it's a very weak blocking bet.

Of the hands he could possibly have, how many of them can pay off a river raise that we beat? AK/KQ/AA/QQ/JJ/79s, I don't think he'd pay off with anything, certainly not a 99 or worse. So, if he's betting the 200 on river, and he gets raised, what is he calling our raise with? Only hands that can call are KK/TT/66. I highly doubt he has 86s since we have 88. So, we're hoping he either has 79s or 86s, both somewhat unlikely hands considering the limp/call preflop OOP.

What I'm trying to ask is, is there any way of not going broke on this hand? (I'm being results-oriented as villain had TT)

Can we min-raise river and fold to push? Or just flatcall? Any thoughts?

[ConfusedAgain]

He has shown a lot of strength. Calling may be better without reads.

[ship_it_trebek]

This is live 2/5, I'm more than happy stacking off here.

[jack frost]

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This is live 2/5, I'm more than happy stacking off here.

[/ QUOTE ]

This should say this is live and in ATLANTIC CITY, I am more than happy stacking off! Atlantic city players amd the donks that come down from NYC to play are terrible.

[Semtex]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm betting the turn so it's easier to get stacks in on the river. As played if he doesn't bet the river, you can't get your stack in here since the pot is only 470.

[/ QUOTE ]

[GiantBuddha]

Calling here is horrible unless you have a huge tell on villain. Three hands beat us: one would be played really weird (KK), one is statistically negligible (66), and the other would be played fairly weird, too (TT). Everything else is fist pump city. Villain is not TAG.

[maltaille]

Your range for villain doesn't correspond with your impression of him as a TAG. Anyone who limp-calls with 79s or 86s (or KQ, ATs, or QQ+) isn't a TAG.

I don't like the way you played this at all, not because of the river, but because of how you got there. You want to get your stack in here, because statistically you will win more money long term by pushing this hand for all its worth than you will save at any point against a hand that might beat you.

That means betting the turn - perhaps 350 would do it - and then pushing the river. Lots of hands will pay you off - AA, maybe AK, anything with a 6 in it. This is not a situation in which you'll only get called by hands that beat you. There are at least as many hands that call that you beat, and likely a lot more, depending on the particular ways in which this villain is bad (and he is bad).

You're missing out on a lot of value by not playing this sort of hand as hard as you can. Getting full value is necessary to make up for the times you get sucked out on. It's just bad luck that this happens to be one of the rare times that you're beat.

Ironically, I think playing this for maximum value also give you the only line that could lead me to get away from this. If you bet 350 on the turn, and he check-raises you big, what do you do? You shouldn't fold without a good read and an understanding of villain's tendencies (for the average 2/5 player, AA would still be more likely than TT), but it's this sort of action that would lead me to reevaluate where I was.