STTF SNG->cash thread

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
SB is 19/15/3.8 through 310 hands and has a flop AF of 10.5

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: $115.60
UTG+1: $290.50
CO: $103.40
Button: $58.45
SB: $162.50
BB: $98

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $4</font>, 3 folds, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($9, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $7</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $21</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($51, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $32</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises all-in $90.6</font>

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Well, here are my thoughts, FWTW.

His flop raise doesn't really scare me, considering his high flop AF. He's probably noticed through those 310 hands that I'll c-bet pretty much every time and he thinks (correctly to some degree) that he has a fair amount of folding equity. Normally, I'd like to put him on a draw, but there aren't a whole lot of draws for the preflop calling range of 19/15 player. I do expect him to have something like 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] once in a very long while, but 100 BB isn't deep enough for me to really worry about it. The most likely draw is something like K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Looking back at the hand, his 3-bet % was only 3% at the time, so his range after he c/r's is something like {22-TT,K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img],maybe K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img],maybe AK,maybe AQs}. If that's really his range, I'm well ahead of it.

I'm not folding, so my choices are calling or raising. If I raise, it pretty much has to be a shove. He's probably calling a shove with most of his range, but some of the wacky weaker draws might get spooked and correctly fold, as well as some of the lower PP's. However, if I call his flop bet and let him continue to bet on the turn (which I see him doing most the time to follow his flop c/r save for sometimes weak hands like the mid PP's), I get the last $90 in with a huge equity edge any time the turn isn't a "club:. I probably get away from the hand on any [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] turn since I'm not really beating anything but a bluff then, and there aren't really any bluffs left in his range anyway.

The turn 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] sucks, but not enough to abort the plan. Both 44 and 33 got there and both are well in his c/r range, but so is a lot of other stuff that is now stuck to the hand and I'm beating.

EDIT: Microbet just pointed out something very important to me: the make-up of that 10.5 flop AF. All it really means is he rarely calls the flop. His actual Raise/Call/Fold distribution when facing a flop bet is 11/11/79, so he's not actually that aggro on the flop. I really should have considered folding more seriously than I did.