10/20 River Decision with Broadway

[tessarji]

What is it with all the hero folds on the river? Every thread these days has someone advocating:

- Putting in a ton of action on the river and then folding to a three, four, or five bet.

or

- Recommending not raising the river for value because then you'd 'have' to fold to a three, four, or five bet.

[surfdoc]

[ QUOTE ]
What is it with all the hero folds on the river? Every thread these days has someone advocating:

- Putting in a ton of action on the river and then folding to a three, four, or five bet.

or

- Recommending not raising the river for value because then you'd 'have' to fold to a three, four, or five bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I never said 3 betting this river is right but calling a 4 bet can't be. It isn't a hero fold. It is an easy fold.

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What is it with all the hero folds on the river? Every thread these days has someone advocating:

- Putting in a ton of action on the river and then folding to a three, four, or five bet.

or

- Recommending not raising the river for value because then you'd 'have' to fold to a three, four, or five bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I never said 3 betting this river is right but calling a 4 bet can't be. It isn't a hero fold. It is an easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I 100% agree with surfdoc here. This is live poker, easy fold.

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
if you 3 bang and get 4 bet, although folding might be immediately +EV, it probably makes you look like an idiot and one of two things will happen

1) people will take shots at you.

2) even if they dont, you will think people are always taking shots at you and become a call station.


keep that in mind.

[/ QUOTE ]

Keep this in mind: they are not taking shots at you, they have better hands or are spewing chips. Its all in your head.

[tessarji]

So Joe, reading your last three posts:

You believe the correct play is to 3-bet the river and fold to a 4 bet, yes?

[Proofrock]

I'm a mid-stakes limit n00b here, but with regards to 3-bet/folding vs. 3-bet/calling:

Given the size of the pot and the assumption that given the description of Villain, Villain's hand is consistent with JJ,KK+,AK, AcQc,AcTc, it looks to me like the cost of 3-bet/calling vs. 3-bet/folding is only 0.1BB, assuming Villain NEVER 4bets worse on the river and that I did the math right.

Since the EV is so close between the two choices in the worst-case scenario (only 4bets the nuts), does it really matter which choice we make on the river, practically speaking?

[surfdoc]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm a mid-stakes limit n00b here, but with regards to 3-bet/folding vs. 3-bet/calling:

Given the size of the pot and the assumption that given the description of Villain, Villain's hand is consistent with JJ,KK+,AK, AcQc,AcTc, it looks to me like the cost of 3-bet/calling vs. 3-bet/folding is only 0.1BB, assuming Villain NEVER 4bets worse on the river and that I did the math right.

Since the EV is so close between the two choices in the worst-case scenario (only 4bets the nuts), does it really matter which choice we make on the river, practically speaking?

[/ QUOTE ]

What you are missing here is the application of bayesian thinking. We have new and additional information. We now have the opportunity to make our decision based on that new information. There comes a time when hand ranges get narrowed down enough that you can no longer assume equal probablities to each combination. When we get checkraised on this river and then 3 bet this guys set is going to be horrified of the backdoor flush as well as straight on the board. He didn't 3 bet the turn with these same holdings. Why is he suddenly 4 betting the river? Because something has changed. The card on the river is the only thing that changed and the simplest explanation is that it helped him. The only way it could help him is if he made a flush.

[Proofrock]

Surfdoc -- I guess my contention is that 3-bet/folding > 3-bet/calling >>> just calling the c/r EV-wise. I agree that his 4-bet range is almost always a flush. However, he has a flush so infrequently when we 3-bet and we're getting > 15 to 1 pot odds when he does 4-bet that 3-bet/calling is at most a -0.1BB mistake, whereas failing to 3-bet is at least a 0.7BB mistake.

Against the Villains I've played live at 10/20, we're behind more than 94% of the time on the river when he 4-bets, so a fold would be in order. However, as a matter of principle if I put a 3-bet in on the river in a big pot I'm committed to seeing a showdown -- perhaps this is a leak, but it can't be very big, can it?

[surfdoc]

[ QUOTE ]
Surfdoc -- I guess my contention is that 3-bet/folding > 3-bet/calling >>> just calling the c/r EV-wise.

[/ QUOTE ]

We were specifically talking about the play when he 4 bets the river. I guess maybe we should now spend some time addressing the correct play when checkraised. I find it very hard to believe that he played a set like this. Why wait until the river? I just can't piece together his thought process at all. Some players will wait until the river is safe and then put in additional action. If villian was thinking like this he would decide to forgo a raise if any club , Q, or T came off which would often destroy his hand. Well, one of those cards did roll off and now he is checkraising. What gives?

[tessarji]

I generally agree with Proofrock in that the four-bet is going to be 99 and 44/100 pure nuts. If we get four-bet and our opponent is not a raving looney, our hand is beaten 100% of the time, period.

I still would absolutely 3-bet/call.

If this was the last hand of poker I played ever, 3-bet/fold would be the best play. But assuming it's not, in this extremely uncommon situation I will quite happily flush that 1BB right down the crapper just to avoid being seen folding in this pot.

The last thing you want in a good game is to give the impression that you carefully consider every action and are capable of folding a apparently terrific 2nd best hand on the river for one bet closing the action.

I try to win money in poker mostly by predicting what my mediocre opposition will do in every situation. If even one usually passive and predictable opponent observing this hand suddenly realizes that I can be folded just by putting in decisive action at the right times, the future pots I will likely give up before I realize his epiphany may well cost a lot more than that crying call.

If your mission is poker is to amaze everyone at what an incredible player you are, by all means fold to the four-bet. If you want to be thought of as merely mortal, which I consider more profitable, then call and shrug when he flips the nuts.